RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2014–2017

Dudi Sela

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.6% ±4.0 raw 63.2% · tour 63.4% · 424 points
Return points won 39.0% ±4.1 raw 36.1% · tour 36.6% · 443 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Dudi Sela goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 99 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 63.6%±10.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 47.0%±12.7 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 14% 35.4%±13.5 35.1%
BH down the line 10% 50.9%±15.0 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 78 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 40% 53.5%±11.5 41.5%
FH crosscourt 38% 44.6%±11.6 46.6%
FH down the line 22% 45.8%±13.5 44.7%

Serve +1: deep return to your middle

position worth 47% to the average player · 67 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 27% 52.0%±13.3 43.8%
BH through the middle 22% 32.7%±13.0 42.3%
FH down the line 18% 48.7%±14.5 47.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 63 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 32% 48.5%±13.0 47.0%
FH crosscourt 24% 64.4%±13.3 52.7%
FH down the line 24% 52.3%±13.9 51.5%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 75% ▲ 73% / 73%
Body 6% 0% 66% / 63%
T 46% 25% ▼ 75% / 75%

213 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 69% ▲ 73% / 73%
Body 6% 7% 68% / 63%
T 41% 24% ▼ 67% / 72%

167 normal · 29 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 63.5%±6.8 n=107 62% ▲
Body6% 64.5%±12.1 n=12 0% ▼
T45% 62.3%±7.0 n=98 38% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.91).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide56% 65.0%±6.7 n=109
Body6% 65.8%±12.0 n=12
T38% 62.8%±7.8 n=75

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.84).

Exploitability 0.27 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.2±8.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (166 repeats, 235 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 6 39% +2.2±13.4
1stAd courtT 55 23% −5.2±7.5
1stAd courtWide 62 26% −1.0±7.5
1stDeuce courtBody 8 37% +0.2±12.9
1stDeuce courtT 69 20% −5.4±6.6
1stDeuce courtWide 61 29% +1.6±7.8
2ndAd courtBody 19 51% +1.3±11.7
2ndAd courtT 26 51% +2.1±11.0
2ndAd courtWide 43 54% +5.8±9.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 15 46% −3.0±12.2
2ndDeuce courtT 62 60% +10.0±8.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 12 39% −9.0±12.4

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · deuce court−3.1123

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Hamad Medjedovic

Charted matches