Fed Cup World Group R1 · RR · Hard · 7 Feb 2016
Richel Hogenkamp v Svetlana Kuznetsova
146–145 in points · Richel Hogenkamp won
Why it went the way it did
Richel Hogenkamp won 0.5 more points than Svetlana Kuznetsova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Svetlana Kuznetsova's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.6, forehand execution −4.0, slice execution −3.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Richel Hogenkamp | Svetlana Kuznetsova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −4.9 | −4.4 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +3.9 | +3.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.7 | +5.7 | +6.8 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +7.9 | +9.1 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +4.9 | +2.7 | +8.5 | +0.9 | +7.4 | −4.0 | +4.4 |
| Backhand | +0.9 | +3.2 | +1.2 | +5.3 | +1.3 | +3.0 | +2.3 | +6.6 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −9.5 | +2.7 | −6.5 | +0.8 | −6.6 | −3.2 | −9.0 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.5 | −2.1 | −2.0 | +0.4 | +2.0 | −1.1 | +1.4 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +1.3 | +1.2 | +2.4 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.8 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.4 | +1.1 | +10.2 | +13.8 | +5.0 | +7.0 | +1.2 | +13.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Richel Hogenkamp | Svetlana Kuznetsova | Net, Richel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.6 | +1.7 | +2.9 | |
| 2 | +3.2 | +4.8 | −1.6 | |
| 3 | +6.0 | +6.8 | −0.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Richel Hogenkamp serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 50% | 11% 75% | 42% 50% |
| 2 | 46% 47% | 10% 75% | 44% 50% |
| 3 | 58% 55% | 14% 89% | 29% 58% |
Set to set −0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Svetlana Kuznetsova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 47% | – | 33% 47% |
| 2 | 60% 50% | 17% 75% | 23% 55% |
| 3 | 57% 71% | 11% 50% | 31% 53% |
Set to set +0.16 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Richel Hogenkamp
17.5 points left on the table across 717 shots 2.44 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×21; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.90 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×11; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH drop shot crosscourt ×2; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.57 pts
Svetlana Kuznetsova
14.8 points left on the table across 725 shots 2.04 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH inside-in ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts