RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 32 charted matches · 2004–2021

Svetlana Kuznetsova

Archetype: Forehand line-changer · Backhand line-changer

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 58.4% ±2.8 raw 54.6% · tour 56.3% · 2,707 points
Return points won 46.7% ±2.8 raw 43.5% · tour 43.7% · 2,742 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.24 ±0.09 better than 90% of WTA · raw +0.23
Shot selection +0.19 ±0.15 better than 64% of WTA · raw +0.16
Execution +0.37 ±0.49 better than 75% of WTA · raw +0.22
Tactical adaptability +0.13 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 32 matches
Adaptation speed +0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.35 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 81% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 15,236 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Svetlana Kuznetsova goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 1,175 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 47.8%±3.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 20% 44.7%±5.1 43.3%
BH down the line 15% 43.1%±5.9 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 6% 30.6%±7.9 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 38.2%±8.7 40.4%
FH inside-out 4% 55.0%±9.8 52.5%
FH inside-in 3% 49.3%±11.5 55.6%
FH through the middle 1% 54.1%±13.5 45.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 858 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 24% 49.3%±5.4 52.2%
FH crosscourt 24% 50.2%±5.4 52.7%
FH through the middle 17% 49.8%±6.4 45.8%
BH through the middle 12% 49.8%±7.5 46.2%
BH crosscourt 11% 50.6%±7.7 50.9%
BH down the line 7% 45.5%±9.3 50.0%
FH down the line + approach 2% 67.8%±13.0 68.6%
BH slice through the middle 1% 46.6%±15.0 44.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 801 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 36% 40.3%±4.6 46.7%
FH down the line 30% 45.9%±5.1 44.9%
FH through the middle 22% 42.1%±5.8 41.3%
FH slice through the middle 7% 28.6%±8.7 29.2%
FH slice crosscourt 3% 33.5%±11.8 31.9%
FH down the line + approach 1% 60.3%±14.7 65.4%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 531 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 46.8%±5.2 47.8%
BH through the middle 24% 46.3%±6.8 43.0%
BH down the line 11% 51.6%±9.3 46.2%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 43.0%±10.7 39.6%
BH slice through the middle 7% 38.0%±10.6 33.2%
FH inside-out 3% 58.1%±13.2 55.4%
FH inside-in 2% 52.0%±14.8 55.6%
BH slice down the line 2% 31.4%±13.7 28.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −6 How much less varied Svetlana Kuznetsova's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 332 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 33% ▼ 66% / 66%
Body 12% 14% 55% / 57%
T 40% 54% ▲ 61% / 68%

1,306 normal · 80 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 46% 63% / 66%
Body 11% 17% 56% / 56%
T 38% 37% 59% / 64%

1,045 normal · 252 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 57.5%±3.1 n=658 63% ▲
Body12% 52.4%±5.8 n=168 0% ▼
T40% 53.3%±3.4 n=560 37% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.18).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 55.1%±3.1 n=647 65% ▲
Body12% 53.5%±6.0 n=158 0% ▼
T38% 52.8%±3.6 n=492 35% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.70).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.35 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.0±3.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (974 repeats, 1,645 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 144 43% −1.3±6.2
1stAd courtT 301 38% +2.7±4.4
1stAd courtWide 307 37% +2.1±4.3
1stDeuce courtBody 185 36% −6.4±5.4
1stDeuce courtT 323 29% −3.1±4.0
1stDeuce courtWide 350 37% +3.1±4.1
2ndAd courtBody 185 56% +1.0±5.6
2ndAd courtT 89 52% −3.3±7.5
2ndAd courtWide 279 52% −1.4±4.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 252 56% +1.7±4.9
2ndDeuce courtT 222 56% +0.3±5.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 74 57% +3.1±8.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Svetlana Kuznetsova's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 63% · +3.9±7.4 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 60% · +1.1±9.2 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 55% · −4.3±9.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 2.6% · won 54% · −4.8±8.7 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 2.6% · won 53% · −5.9±8.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.5% · won 59% · +13.9±7.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.7% · won 58% · +13.5±8.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 2.7% · won 51% · +6.5±8.9 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 2.2% · won 50% · +5.9±9.4 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.5% · won 50% · +5.3±9.1 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 51% · +4.6±6.8 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 50% · +3.7±7.4 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 4.3% · won 49% · +2.6±6.2 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 50% · +2.8±7.3 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 49% · +2.4±7.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Svetlana Kuznetsova wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → BH through the middle used 0.3% · won 60% · +12.8±11.6 vs own baseline · +30.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH through the middle → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 61% · +13.7±12.1 vs own baseline · +27.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.1% · won 52% · +5.3±7.7 vs own baseline · +10.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Justine Henin (2/6), Francesca Schiavone (4/8)
  4. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.2% · won 59% · +11.9±12.5 vs own baseline · +17.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Francesca Schiavone (4/6)
  5. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 56% · +8.6±10.8 vs own baseline · +4.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Justine Henin (7/10)
  6. FH down the line → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 56% · +9.3±11.4 vs own baseline · +0.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · return+2.6153
T 2nd serve · deuce court+2.4163
FH to their backhand · return+2.1226
FH to their backhand · return +1+2.0251
BH to the middle · return+1.8476

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · return−3.4183
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.7418
BH to their backhand · return +1−2.4306
BH to the middle · serve +1−2.4292
BH to their forehand · rally−1.9428

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Alexandra Eala, Magdalena Frech, Belinda Bencic, Angelique Kerber, Clara Tauson

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands16%
FH down the line35%
Wide serves · ad50%
Wide serves · deuce47%
Avg rally length4.6
Points at net10%
T serves · deuce40%
1st serve in64%
BH down the line22%
Backhand slice16%
T serves · ad38%
Chipped returns11%
Serve & volley1%
Forehand share53%
Unforced errors / shot10.4%
Point-ending shots23.2%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
Deep returns29%
Through the middle25%

Plays most like

  1. Ana Ivanovic 2007–2016 plan v
  2. Daria Kasatkina 2015–2026 plan v
  3. Kim Clijsters 2001–2021 plan v
  4. Simona Halep 2013–2022 plan v
  5. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010 plan v
  6. Cristina Bucsa 2016–2026 plan v
  7. Christina Mchale 2012–2021 plan v
  8. Victoria Azarenka 2009–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Monica Seles 1990–2003
  2. Jennifer Capriati 1990–2002
  3. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario 1988–2001

Charted matches