Rotterdam · R32 · Hard · 8 Feb 2016
Thiemo De Bakker v Borna Coric
105–113 in points · Borna Coric won
Why it went the way it did
Borna Coric won 4.9 more points than Thiemo De Bakker relative to what the serve alone predicted. Thiemo De Bakker's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.6, slice shot selection −2.6, forehand direction choices −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Thiemo De Bakker | Borna Coric | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +0.6 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.6 | +2.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.7 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.4 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.7 | +1.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.5 | −2.3 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | −1.5 | +2.2 | −4.6 | −3.9 | −0.8 | +3.6 | −4.8 | −2.1 |
| Backhand | −1.0 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +0.4 | −0.4 | +0.3 | +2.8 | +2.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.6 | +0.4 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +2.3 | +0.8 | +3.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.9 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −2.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 | −1.1 | −0.8 | +4.2 | +0.4 | +3.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Thiemo De Bakker | Borna Coric | Net, Thiemo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.4 | −1.1 | +1.5 | |
| 2 | +2.5 | +2.5 | ±0.0 | |
| 3 | −3.9 | +2.4 | −6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Thiemo De Bakker serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 73% | 2% 100% | 52% 72% |
| 2 | 58% 53% | 4% 0% | 38% 80% |
| 3 | 42% 75% | 5% 50% | 53% 50% |
Set to set +0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Borna Coric serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 67% | 2% 0% | 55% 73% |
| 2 | 58% 53% | 8% 50% | 35% 78% |
| 3 | 68% 88% | 4% 0% | 28% 86% |
Set to set −1.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Thiemo De Bakker
12.4 points left on the table across 357 shots 3.47 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
Borna Coric
9.7 points left on the table across 363 shots 2.68 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts