Rio de Janeiro · R16 · Clay · 18 Feb 2016
Inigo Cervantes Huegun v Alexandr Dolgopolov
60–79 in points · Alexandr Dolgopolov won
Why it went the way it did
Alexandr Dolgopolov won 9.4 more points than Inigo Cervantes Huegun relative to what the serve alone predicted. Inigo Cervantes Huegun's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.0, backhand execution −3.4, slice shot selection −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Inigo Cervantes Huegun | Alexandr Dolgopolov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.1 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.6 | −4.0 | −2.5 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +0.6 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −3.4 | −3.9 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −2.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.0 | −2.7 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +1.3 | ±0.0 |
| Net | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −1.1 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +1.4 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.8 |
| All shots | −0.4 | −1.6 | −11.0 | −13.0 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −1.8 | −3.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Inigo Cervantes Huegun | Alexandr Dolgopolov | Net, Inigo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | −5.1 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | −6.2 | +1.7 | −7.9 | |
| 3 | −6.4 | −0.3 | −6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Inigo Cervantes Huegun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 82% | 4% 100% | 52% 77% |
| 2 | 29% 0% | – | 71% 20% |
| 3 | 30% 33% | 3% 100% | 67% 65% |
Set to set −1.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.61 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexandr Dolgopolov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 67% | 8% 0% | 46% 67% |
| 2 | 63% 58% | – | 37% 86% |
| 3 | 60% 73% | 12% 100% | 28% 86% |
Set to set −0.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Inigo Cervantes Huegun
5.7 points left on the table across 195 shots 2.91 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Alexandr Dolgopolov
4.9 points left on the table across 201 shots 2.46 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.20 pts