RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 28 charted matches · 2011–2018

Alexandr Dolgopolov

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.5% ±2.6 raw 61.9% · tour 63.4% · 2,091 points
Return points won 37.8% ±2.8 raw 34.4% · tour 36.6% · 2,005 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.18 ±0.06 better than 92% of ATP · raw +0.18
Shot selection −0.24 ±0.16 better than 28% of ATP · raw −0.25
Execution −0.90 ±0.66 better than 28% of ATP · raw −1.01
Tactical adaptability −0.03 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 28 matches
Adaptation speed −0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.15 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 96% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 9,760 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Alexandr Dolgopolov goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 638 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 40.2%±4.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 37.3%±6.1 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 46.1%±9.3 42.5%
BH down the line 8% 48.2%±9.9 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 6% 36.1%±10.1 35.1%
FH inside-out 3% 45.9%±13.0 51.8%
BH drop shot down the line 3% 49.8%±13.5 47.2%
BH slice down the line 3% 42.8%±13.6 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 439 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 45% 46.4%±5.6 46.6%
FH down the line 25% 37.7%±7.0 44.7%
FH through the middle 15% 40.1%±8.9 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 5% 24.8%±11.2 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 4% 32.1%±12.5 30.9%
FH down the line + approach 3% 73.1%±12.5 69.3%
FH slice down the line 3% 18.6%±11.1 25.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 369 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 25% 42.4%±7.7 52.7%
FH down the line 24% 45.6%±7.9 51.5%
BH crosscourt 16% 39.5%±9.1 49.1%
FH through the middle 11% 39.0%±10.4 47.0%
BH through the middle 11% 47.3%±10.6 46.8%
BH down the line 6% 48.0%±12.5 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 3% 67.0%±14.1 70.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 333 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 53% 39.8%±5.8 48.0%
BH through the middle 21% 36.4%±8.3 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 36.9%±11.2 42.1%
BH down the line 8% 59.3%±11.9 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 4% 29.5%±12.9 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Alexandr Dolgopolov's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 181 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 65% 70% 73% / 73%
Body 7% 8% 63% / 63%
T 28% 23% 80% / 75%

1,046 normal · 40 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 57% 60% 70% / 73%
Body 7% 7% 62% / 63%
T 35% 33% 74% / 72%

853 normal · 141 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide65% 62.7%±2.9 n=704 59% ▼
Body7% 58.6%±7.8 n=79 0% ▼
T28% 63.5%±4.3 n=303 41% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.52).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide58% 59.3%±3.3 n=573 52% ▼
Body7% 56.7%±8.0 n=73 0% ▼
T35% 65.6%±4.0 n=348 48% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.048): serve T more. Gap 4.3 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.59 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.3±4.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,041 repeats, 983 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 83 40% +2.9±7.6
1stAd courtT 256 24% −4.1±4.1
1stAd courtWide 257 26% −1.0±4.3
1stDeuce courtBody 106 32% −5.1±6.6
1stDeuce courtT 247 28% +2.9±4.4
1stDeuce courtWide 328 25% −2.0±3.8
2ndAd courtBody 163 47% −2.8±5.9
2ndAd courtT 67 48% −1.0±8.3
2ndAd courtWide 116 47% −1.4±6.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 181 44% −4.6±5.6
2ndDeuce courtT 117 51% +1.3±6.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 74 55% +7.1±8.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alexandr Dolgopolov's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 65% · −1.3±9.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 59% · −6.9±8.7 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 58% · −7.9±8.9 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 3.4% · won 56% · −10.3±8.6 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 2.8% · won 54% · −12.0±9.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.4% · won 48% · +12.0±9.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.5% · won 47% · +11.4±9.2 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 2.1% · won 47% · +11.8±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.4% · won 47% · +11.1±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH slice through the middle, deep used 2.2% · won 45% · +9.1±11.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 54% · +11.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.4% · won 46% · +3.9±6.9 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.7% · won 50% · +7.1±10.8 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.5% · won 48% · +5.7±9.8 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH slice down the line used 1.2% · won 49% · +7.0±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alexandr Dolgopolov wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, deep → BH through the middle used 0.3% · won 53% · +8.2±13.0 vs own baseline · +26.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.4% · won 52% · +6.8±12.5 vs own baseline · +13.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 49% · +3.9±10.4 vs own baseline · −1.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by David Ferrer (3/8), Novak Djokovic (5/12)
  4. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.4% · won 48% · +3.3±12.4 vs own baseline · −2.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → BH through the middle used 0.4% · won 48% · +3.3±12.7 vs own baseline · +8.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 48% · +3.3±12.7 vs own baseline · +3.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · return +1+4.2136
BH to their forehand · rally+3.2176
BH slice to their backhand · rally+1.9120
FH slice to the middle · return+1.2179
Wide 2nd serve · ad court+0.7275

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.8449
BH to their backhand · rally−1.5469
FH to the middle · return−1.0332
FH to the middle · rally−0.8260
T 1st serve · ad court−0.8369

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nick Kyrgios, Quentin Halys, Nicolas Jarry

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · deuce65%
FH down the line36%
Wide serves · ad58%
Chipped returns26%
Unforced errors / shot11.7%
Deep returns32%
Point-ending shots26.7%
Drop shots / shot1.9%
Backhand slice16%
Serve & volley1%
Avg rally length3.7
Forehand share51%
Run-around forehands14%
T serves · ad35%
Points at net8%
BH down the line16%
Through the middle21%
1st serve in54%
T serves · deuce28%

Plays most like

  1. Arthur Fils 2023–2026 plan v
  2. Thomas Johansson 1996–2005 plan v
  3. Gregoire Barrere 2016–2024 plan v
  4. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
  5. Paul Henri Mathieu 2002–2016 plan v
  6. Alexander Shevchenko 2023–2026 plan v
  7. Nikoloz Basilashvili 2017–2025 plan v
  8. Karue Sell 2024–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002
  2. Andre Agassi 1988–2006
  3. Jonas Svensson 1987–1991

Charted matches