RallyIQ

Quimper CH · QF · Hard · 4 Mar 2016

Paul Henri Mathieu v Igor Sijsling

45–41 in points · result not charted to completion

Why it went the way it did

Paul Henri Mathieu won 3.7 more points than Igor Sijsling relative to what the serve alone predicted. Igor Sijsling's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, net execution −1.4, serve 1st execution −1.3.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotPaul Henri MathieuIgor Sijsling
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.1 −0.1 +0.6 +0.6 ±0.0 +0.4 −1.3 −0.9
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.6 +0.6 +0.1 ±0.0 +0.3 +0.5
Return +0.2 +0.6 −0.2 +0.6 −0.1 ±0.0 +0.3 +0.1
Forehand +0.4 +0.4 −1.3 −0.5 −0.1 +0.8 −0.4 +0.3
Backhand +0.3 +0.2 −0.4 +0.1 ±0.0 +0.2 +0.7 +0.9
Slice −0.1 −0.1 −0.3 −0.5 +0.5 −2.3 +0.1 −1.6
Net +0.3 −0.1 −0.5 −0.4 −0.6 −0.3 −1.4 −2.3
Touch +0.1 −0.2 +0.2 +0.1 −0.1 −0.1 ±0.0 −0.2
All shots +1.4+0.6 −1.4+0.6 −0.4−1.2 −1.6−3.1

Set by set

SetPaul Henri MathieuIgor SijslingNet, Paul
1+0.6−3.1 +3.7

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Paul Henri Mathieu

2.3 points left on the table across 150 shots 1.53 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.14 pts
  2. Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.11 pts

Igor Sijsling

4.3 points left on the table across 134 shots 3.20 per 100 shots

  1. Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
  3. Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
  4. Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts