RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2002–2016

Paul Henri Mathieu

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.6% ±3.1 raw 58.7% · tour 63.4% · 789 points
Return points won 36.4% ±3.3 raw 33.5% · tour 36.6% · 747 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.16 ±0.20 better than 90% of ATP · raw +0.16
Shot selection −0.10 ±0.22 better than 40% of ATP · raw −0.11
Execution −0.93 ±0.75 better than 26% of ATP · raw −1.11
Points left on the table 2.20 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 92% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,396 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Paul Henri Mathieu goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 240 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 43.1%±7.1 47.6%
BH through the middle 27% 39.7%±8.7 43.7%
BH down the line 17% 37.1%±10.3 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 32.8%±13.7 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 187 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 31% 39.2%±9.1 52.7%
FH down the line 19% 38.7%±10.8 51.5%
BH through the middle 18% 47.9%±11.3 46.8%
BH crosscourt 12% 48.4%±12.5 49.1%
BH down the line 11% 47.9%±12.8 48.3%
FH through the middle 6% 36.8%±14.2 47.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 143 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 40.6%±8.4 46.6%
FH down the line 32% 37.8%±9.8 44.7%
FH through the middle 17% 34.0%±11.6 41.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 104 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 41.3%±10.3 48.0%
BH down the line 28% 33.3%±11.1 46.5%
BH through the middle 27% 41.2%±11.7 43.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +10 How much less varied Paul Henri Mathieu's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 89 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 64% ▲ 64% / 73%
Body 6% 5% 66% / 63%
T 41% 32% ▼ 70% / 75%

372 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 65% 70% 69% / 73%
Body 5% 3% 62% / 63%
T 30% 27% 67% / 72%

290 normal · 67 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 57.2%±5.2 n=211 58% ▲
Body6% 60.8%±10.8 n=25 0% ▼
T40% 55.3%±6.0 n=158 42% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.59).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide66% 59.7%±4.9 n=236 73% ▲
Body4% 57.9%±12.0 n=16 0% ▼
T29% 57.3%±7.0 n=105 27% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.58).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.10 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −5.6±9.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (316 repeats, 417 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 19 31% −6.2±10.9
1stAd courtT 88 25% −3.1±6.6
1stAd courtWide 100 26% −0.9±6.4
1stDeuce courtBody 38 28% −8.8±9.0
1stDeuce courtT 91 25% +0.2±6.5
1stDeuce courtWide 108 28% +0.5±6.3
2ndAd courtBody 61 46% −3.4±8.6
2ndAd courtT 16 47% −1.9±12.1
2ndAd courtWide 54 45% −3.7±8.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 74 49% −0.3±8.1
2ndDeuce courtT 33 47% −2.2±10.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 30 47% −0.7±10.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Paul Henri Mathieu's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 6.0% · won 58% · −3.5±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.0% · won 56% · −4.7±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 57% · −4.4±10.8 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 3.7% · won 55% · −6.5±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 51% · −9.7±10.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.1% · won 44% · +7.1±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 14.2% · won 42% · +4.6±9.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.5% · won 40% · +2.3±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 8.5% · won 38% · +0.3±11.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.7% · won 42% · +4.6±9.1 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.9% · won 41% · +4.0±9.9 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 42% · +4.6±11.2 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 41% · +3.7±10.0 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 40% · +2.7±10.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Paul Henri Mathieu wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 47% · +6.6±12.0 vs own baseline · +5.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marat Safin (6/9)
  2. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 48% · +7.4±12.7 vs own baseline · +12.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mikhail Youzhny (7/11)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 44% · +4.0±12.5 vs own baseline · −2.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Igor Sijsling (4/7)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.0% · won 43% · +2.6±12.6 vs own baseline · +1.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mikhail Youzhny (4/8)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 42% · +1.1±10.6 vs own baseline · −6.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mikhail Youzhny (2/6), Nikolay Davydenko (4/11)
  6. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 42% · +1.1±12.0 vs own baseline · −2.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · return+0.5123
BH to the middle · rally+0.4154
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.3135
FH to their forehand · rally−1.2182
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.2213

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−2.8179
T 1st serve · deuce court−2.2134
T 1st serve · ad court−2.1120
FH to their forehand · rally−2.0169
BH to their backhand · rally±0.0187

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · ad66%
Wide serves · deuce54%
FH down the line33%
Avg rally length4.0
BH down the line21%
Unforced errors / shot9.8%
Through the middle23%
Point-ending shots21.7%
Serve & volley0%
Deep returns24%
Run-around forehands12%
Drop shots / shot0.7%
1st serve in58%
T serves · deuce40%
Points at net7%
Chipped returns7%
Forehand share49%
Backhand slice7%
T serves · ad29%

Plays most like

  1. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001 plan v
  2. Andre Agassi 1988–2006 plan v
  3. Nikoloz Basilashvili 2017–2025 plan v
  4. Jannik Sinner 2013–2026 plan v
  5. Gustavo Kuerten 1997–2007 plan v
  6. Egor Gerasimov 2016–2022 plan v
  7. Sergi Bruguera 1990–1997 plan v
  8. Thomas Johansson 1996–2005 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Sergi Bruguera 1990–1997
  2. Jakub Mensik 2022–2026
  3. Flavio Cobolli 2022–2026

Charted matches