Indian Wells Masters · R128 · Hard · 10 Mar 2016
Pablo Carreno Busta v Evgeny Donskoy
59–47 in points · Pablo Carreno Busta won
Why it went the way it did
Pablo Carreno Busta won 4.8 more points than Evgeny Donskoy relative to what the serve alone predicted. Evgeny Donskoy's biggest leaks: return execution −3.4, forehand execution −2.0, backhand execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pablo Carreno Busta | Evgeny Donskoy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +2.2 | +2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −3.4 | −3.2 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.9 | −2.0 | −1.9 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −2.0 | −2.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −0.6 | +1.0 | +0.2 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −3.9 | −4.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Pablo Carreno Busta | Evgeny Donskoy | Net, Pablo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.3 | −2.5 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | −0.1 | −2.2 | +2.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pablo Carreno Busta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 73% | 15% 100% | 42% 73% |
| 2 | 42% 69% | 13% 75% | 45% 71% |
Within sets −0.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Evgeny Donskoy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 75% | 5% 0% | 38% 63% |
| 2 | 39% 55% | 7% 100% | 54% 67% |
Within sets +0.89 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pablo Carreno Busta
3.0 points left on the table across 143 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Evgeny Donskoy
4.3 points left on the table across 151 shots 2.82 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts