RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2016–2023

Evgeny Donskoy

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.6% ±4.0 raw 64.4% · tour 63.4% · 343 points
Return points won 37.4% ±4.2 raw 33.7% · tour 36.6% · 335 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Evgeny Donskoy goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 76 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 53% 42.5%±10.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 25% 37.8%±12.8 43.7%
BH down the line 13% 44.3%±14.9 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 70 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 33% 57.1%±12.4 52.7%
FH down the line 21% 58.0%±13.7 51.5%
FH through the middle 16% 52.9%±14.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 16% 43.1%±14.6 46.8%
BH crosscourt 14% 46.1%±15.0 49.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 67 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 61% 55.1%±10.5 48.0%
BH through the middle 22% 47.9%±13.9 43.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 57 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 63% 48.8%±11.0 46.6%
FH down the line 23% 51.4%±14.3 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 60% ▲ 68% / 73%
Body 8% 0% 56% / 63%
T 41% 40% 75% / 75%

176 normal · 5 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 48% 79% / 73%
Body 12% 14% 68% / 63%
T 37% 38% 77% / 72%

141 normal · 21 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide51% 57.2%±7.4 n=92
Body8% 49.3%±12.4 n=14
T41% 64.0%±7.7 n=75

Off equilibrium (p = 0.028): serve T more. Gap 4.6 points per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide51% 70.2%±7.1 n=82
Body12% 71.3%±10.5 n=20
T37% 71.9%±7.8 n=60

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.94).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.0±8.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (154 repeats, 179 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 10 40% +3.3±12.8
1stAd courtT 38 27% −1.0±8.9
1stAd courtWide 45 27% −0.3±8.4
1stDeuce courtBody 5 37% +0.5±13.4
1stDeuce courtT 60 24% −1.2±7.4
1stDeuce courtWide 51 27% +0.2±8.1
2ndAd courtBody 16 45% −4.1±12.1
2ndAd courtT 9 53% +4.0±13.1
2ndAd courtWide 41 44% −4.0±9.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 16 54% +4.7±12.1
2ndDeuce courtT 25 45% −4.4±11.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 19 44% −4.4±11.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Evgeny Donskoy's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 27.0% · won 27% · +2.3±10.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 20.6% · won 53% · −0.6±11.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Evgeny Donskoy wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 53% · +1.8±12.3 vs own baseline · +6.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (4/8)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 49% · −1.6±13.1 vs own baseline · −0.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 45% · −5.9±12.1 vs own baseline · −10.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Yasutaka Uchiyama (4/10)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+2.3123

Most exposed to

Charted matches