Miami · F · Hard · 2 Apr 2016
Svetlana Kuznetsova v Victoria Azarenka
41–60 in points · Victoria Azarenka won
Why it went the way it did
Victoria Azarenka won 10.2 more points than Svetlana Kuznetsova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Svetlana Kuznetsova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.8, slice shot selection −2.9, net execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Svetlana Kuznetsova | Victoria Azarenka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.8 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.8 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.1 | +2.0 | +2.4 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.4 | −3.8 | −2.5 | +0.4 | +1.6 | +2.3 | +4.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +2.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.9 | +0.2 | −2.5 | +0.1 | −0.9 | +0.6 | −0.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +1.9 | +2.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −1.8 | −2.2 | +0.3 | +2.1 | +5.6 | +8.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Svetlana Kuznetsova | Victoria Azarenka | Net, Svetlana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.8 | +2.9 | −3.8 | |
| 2 | −1.3 | +5.1 | −6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Svetlana Kuznetsova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 25% | 30% 30% | 33% 45% |
| 2 | 30% 57% | 22% 20% | 48% 45% |
Set to set +3.43 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Victoria Azarenka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 60% | 33% 29% | 43% 33% |
| 2 | 46% 73% | 33% 75% | 21% 60% |
Within sets +1.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Svetlana Kuznetsova
5.1 points left on the table across 203 shots 2.49 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Victoria Azarenka
4.7 points left on the table across 216 shots 2.19 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts