New Haven · F · Hard · 27 Aug 2016
Agnieszka Radwanska v Elina Svitolina
72–51 in points · Agnieszka Radwanska won
Why it went the way it did
Agnieszka Radwanska won 10.1 more points than Elina Svitolina relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elina Svitolina's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.3, forehand execution −1.7, touch execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Agnieszka Radwanska | Elina Svitolina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +4.2 | +4.2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +2.7 | +3.1 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +3.5 | +2.0 | +5.7 | +0.6 | +3.1 | −1.7 | +2.0 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | +1.4 | +5.2 | +6.0 | +0.2 | +2.5 | +1.2 | +3.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −3.9 | +0.6 | −3.2 | +0.2 | −3.3 | −0.6 | −3.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | +1.2 | +2.1 | +3.4 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +11.8 | +13.8 | +1.5 | +3.4 | −1.1 | +3.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Agnieszka Radwanska | Elina Svitolina | Net, Agnieszka | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.3 | −1.8 | +6.1 | |
| 2 | +9.5 | +5.5 | +4.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Agnieszka Radwanska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 88% | 13% 67% | 54% 54% |
| 2 | 49% 50% | 12% 40% | 39% 69% |
Within sets +0.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elina Svitolina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 13% | 24% 50% | 29% 60% |
| 2 | 46% 37% | 27% 45% | 27% 64% |
Within sets +1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Agnieszka Radwanska
9.9 points left on the table across 348 shots 2.83 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
Elina Svitolina
8.0 points left on the table across 359 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH crosscourt + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.23 pts