ITF Saint Petersburg · F · Hard · 24 Sep 2016
Natalia Vikhlyantseva v Donna Vekic
67–44 in points · Natalia Vikhlyantseva won
Why it went the way it did
Natalia Vikhlyantseva won 9.0 more points than Donna Vekic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Donna Vekic's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.9, slice shot selection −0.6, return execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Natalia Vikhlyantseva | Donna Vekic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +3.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.4 | +2.2 | +2.8 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.6 | +2.6 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +3.3 | +4.3 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.8 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −3.9 | −3.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +0.1 | +6.2 | +7.2 | −0.2 | +0.5 | −2.1 | −1.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Natalia Vikhlyantseva | Donna Vekic | Net, Natalia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.8 | −1.2 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +3.5 | −0.6 | +4.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Natalia Vikhlyantseva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 75% | 10% 0% | 39% 67% |
| 2 | 34% 33% | 14% 50% | 52% 70% |
Set to set −0.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Donna Vekic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 33% | 20% 67% | 40% 33% |
| 2 | 48% 30% | 29% 50% | 24% 20% |
Within sets +0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Natalia Vikhlyantseva
3.7 points left on the table across 186 shots 1.96 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle hit BH crosscourt ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Donna Vekic
4.6 points left on the table across 201 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts