RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 2016–2019

Natalia Vikhlyantseva

Shot expected value

The share of points Natalia Vikhlyantseva goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 90 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 23% 41.9%±12.7 50.9%
BH through the middle 21% 46.8%±13.1 46.2%
FH through the middle 18% 39.3%±13.4 45.8%
BH down the line 17% 42.9%±13.8 50.0%
FH crosscourt 12% 46.9%±14.7 52.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 86 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 48.8%±11.0 46.7%
FH down the line 30% 39.1%±11.8 44.9%
FH through the middle 28% 32.4%±11.6 41.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 69 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH down the line 45% 39.9%±11.3 46.8%
BH through the middle 28% 45.3%±13.1 43.3%
BH crosscourt 28% 42.4%±13.0 47.6%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 59 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 36% 50.7%±12.8 54.0%
BH through the middle 20% 44.6%±14.5 46.3%
FH through the middle 17% 47.0%±15.0 45.5%
BH crosscourt 17% 55.0%±14.9 52.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Natalia Vikhlyantseva's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 40 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 44% 60% / 66%
Body 22% 22% 57% / 57%
T 31% 33% 70% / 68%

139 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 35% 68% / 66%
Body 17% 16% 50% / 56%
T 41% 48% 60% / 64%

108 normal · 31 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide47% 51.9%±8.3 n=69
Body22% 53.9%±10.3 n=33
T31% 54.9%±9.4 n=46

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide41% 47.4%±8.8 n=57
Body17% 42.4%±11.2 n=23
T42% 50.6%±8.7 n=59

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.39).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 11 47% +2.9±12.8
1stAd courtT 16 36% +0.7±11.7
1stAd courtWide 34 36% +2.0±9.9
1stDeuce courtBody 11 34% −9.0±12.1
1stDeuce courtT 25 36% +3.6±10.6
1stDeuce courtWide 23 31% −3.4±10.4
2ndAd courtBody 13 57% +2.0±12.4
2ndAd courtT 5 59% +3.6±13.7
2ndAd courtWide 23 57% +3.2±11.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 18 61% +6.7±11.6
2ndDeuce courtT 22 46% −10.2±11.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 13 58% +4.7±12.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Natalia Vikhlyantseva's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 17.9% · won 47% · −7.8±11.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 14.4% · won 50% · +6.5±11.5 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Natalia Vikhlyantseva wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 46% · +4.4±12.7 vs own baseline · +4.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Angelique Kerber (9/17)
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 44% · +1.8±13.0 vs own baseline · −1.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Angelique Kerber (7/15)

Charted matches