Charlottesville CH · R32 · Hard · 1 Nov 2016
Denis Kudla v Tommy Paul
58–34 in points · Denis Kudla won
Why it went the way it did
Denis Kudla won 12.3 more points than Tommy Paul relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tommy Paul's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.1, return execution −4.0, serve 1st execution −3.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Denis Kudla | Tommy Paul | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −3.1 | −3.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −4.0 | −3.8 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +1.2 | −4.1 | −3.2 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −1.0 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +1.3 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.4 | +0.8 | −12.4 | −12.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Denis Kudla | Tommy Paul | Net, Denis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.3 | −6.5 | +6.3 | |
| 2 | +0.5 | −5.5 | +6.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Denis Kudla serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 79% | 8% 50% | 33% 63% |
| 2 | 50% 80% | 5% 0% | 45% 78% |
Within sets −0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 64% | 4% 100% | 38% 11% |
| 2 | 52% 45% | 10% 100% | 38% 38% |
Within sets −0.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Denis Kudla
3.9 points left on the table across 150 shots 2.58 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Tommy Paul
3.9 points left on the table across 156 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH inside-out + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts