RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 12 charted matches · 2014–2021

Denis Kudla

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.4% ±3.3 raw 62.2% · tour 63.4% · 810 points
Return points won 36.8% ±3.4 raw 33.1% · tour 36.6% · 815 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.13 ±0.09 better than 25% of ATP · raw −0.13
Shot selection −0.47 ±0.22 better than 12% of ATP · raw −0.47
Execution −0.61 ±0.59 better than 41% of ATP · raw −0.56
Tactical adaptability +0.06 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 12 matches
Adaptation speed +0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.37 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 77% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,103 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Denis Kudla goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 179 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 52.2%±8.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 24% 52.0%±10.4 43.7%
BH down the line 17% 42.6%±11.5 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 47.7%±12.5 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 178 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 25% 52.0%±10.3 51.5%
BH through the middle 19% 48.8%±11.2 46.8%
FH through the middle 16% 48.8%±11.9 47.0%
BH crosscourt 16% 53.8%±11.8 49.1%
FH crosscourt 14% 50.1%±12.3 52.7%
BH down the line 7% 50.5%±14.3 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 173 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 35% 45.4%±9.2 46.6%
FH through the middle 32% 42.5%±9.3 41.5%
FH down the line 26% 46.1%±10.2 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 7% 21.6%±12.0 24.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 124 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 35% 56.9%±10.2 46.9%
BH through the middle 23% 49.2%±11.9 43.0%
BH down the line 14% 45.5%±13.5 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 39.4%±13.4 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 10% 23.5%±12.3 32.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Denis Kudla's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 71 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 31% 29% 77% / 73%
Body 15% 21% 61% / 63%
T 54% 50% 78% / 75%

408 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 44% 72% / 73%
Body 11% 9% 65% / 63%
T 40% 47% 66% / 72%

327 normal · 57 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide31% 71.7%±5.8 n=131 44% ▲
Body15% 59.1%±8.3 n=64 2% ▼
T54% 64.7%±4.9 n=227 54%

Off equilibrium (p = 0.037): serve wide more. Gap 5.7 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.1 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 58.4%±5.5 n=185 61% ▲
Body11% 63.3%±9.4 n=41 0% ▼
T41% 56.4%±5.9 n=158 39% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.42).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.72 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.4±6.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (295 repeats, 487 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 21 45% +8.3±11.5
1stAd courtT 110 25% −2.7±6.0
1stAd courtWide 100 30% +2.9±6.6
1stDeuce courtBody 26 39% +2.6±10.7
1stDeuce courtT 113 23% −2.3±5.8
1stDeuce courtWide 129 18% −9.5±5.0
2ndAd courtBody 69 48% −1.1±8.3
2ndAd courtT 28 50% +0.3±10.8
2ndAd courtWide 59 42% −6.2±8.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 62 46% −2.6±8.6
2ndDeuce courtT 67 47% −2.4±8.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 28 51% +2.7±10.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Denis Kudla's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 3.6% · won 65% · −3.4±11.2 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.0% · won 61% · −7.8±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 57% · −11.4±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.2% · won 58% · −10.8±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 55% · −13.6±11.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 15.1% · won 46% · +2.2±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 10.5% · won 44% · −0.4±11.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 4.2% · won 58% · +9.7±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.7% · won 52% · +3.8±9.6 vs own baseline
  3. BH down the line → FH down the line used 3.2% · won 53% · +4.7±11.7 vs own baseline
  4. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 50% · +1.7±11.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 3.5% · won 49% · +0.7±11.5 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Denis Kudla wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.7% · won 55% · +6.8±13.0 vs own baseline · +24.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 51% · +2.9±12.3 vs own baseline · +10.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Richard Gasquet (4/8)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 50% · +1.8±12.1 vs own baseline · +4.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 49% · +0.8±11.5 vs own baseline · −2.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Juan Martin Del Potro (1/6)
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 47% · −1.3±11.7 vs own baseline · −3.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 45% · −3.8±12.2 vs own baseline · −8.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court+0.9227
BH to their backhand · return+0.9123
BH to the middle · return+0.2140
BH to the middle · rally±0.0145
FH to the middle · rally−0.4149

Most exposed to

BH slice to their backhand · rally−2.0186
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.6197
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.4186
FH to their forehand · rally−0.7236
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.6174

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Daniel Evans, Lorenzo Musetti, Andy Murray, Jaume Munar, Pablo Carreno Busta

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line39%
T serves · deuce54%
Chipped returns24%
Through the middle28%
BH down the line24%
Unforced errors / shot10.8%
T serves · ad41%
Deep returns29%
Backhand slice22%
Avg rally length4.0
Drop shots / shot1.4%
Wide serves · ad48%
Serve & volley2%
Point-ending shots21.9%
Points at net9%
1st serve in59%
Run-around forehands8%
Forehand share47%
Wide serves · deuce31%

Plays most like

  1. Viktor Troicki 2009–2021 plan v
  2. Janko Tipsarevic 2007–2019 plan v
  3. Benjamin Bonzi 2021–2025 plan v
  4. Marat Safin 1998–2009 plan v
  5. Tomas Machac 2020–2026 plan v
  6. Daniel Altmaier 2019–2025 plan v
  7. Ivan Ljubicic 2003–2011 plan v
  8. Taro Daniel 2014–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  2. Gustavo Kuerten 1997–2007
  3. Cedric Pioline 1992–2000

Charted matches