Bangkok CH · F · Hard · 8 Jan 2017
Janko Tipsarevic v Blaz Kavcic
72–54 in points · Janko Tipsarevic won
Why it went the way it did
Janko Tipsarevic won 5.8 more points than Blaz Kavcic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Blaz Kavcic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.6, serve 1st execution −1.9, forehand direction choices −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Janko Tipsarevic | Blaz Kavcic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.8 | −2.8 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −2.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +2.6 | +2.9 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | −1.5 | +2.8 | +2.2 | +3.5 | −1.5 | +3.0 | +4.0 | +5.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +5.9 | +5.3 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +2.5 | +1.9 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.2 | +0.3 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −2.6 | +1.4 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −1.1 | +0.2 | −0.7 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.9 | +1.1 | +8.8 | +9.1 | −1.8 | −1.4 | +6.4 | +3.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Janko Tipsarevic | Blaz Kavcic | Net, Janko | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.9 | +0.7 | +1.2 | |
| 2 | +7.1 | +2.5 | +4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Janko Tipsarevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 70% | 4% 100% | 54% 46% |
| 2 | 31% 80% | 6% 100% | 63% 75% |
Within sets −0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Blaz Kavcic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 33% | 7% 100% | 53% 50% |
| 2 | 36% 58% | 18% 83% | 45% 60% |
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Janko Tipsarevic
9.5 points left on the table across 442 shots 2.15 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×27; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.48 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.67 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
Blaz Kavcic
10.1 points left on the table across 449 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.80 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts