Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 17 Jan 2017
Rafael Nadal v Florian Mayer
99–79 in points · Rafael Nadal won
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 13.4 more points than Florian Mayer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Florian Mayer's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.8, forehand execution −3.8, slice execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Rafael Nadal | Florian Mayer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.8 | −0.1 | +0.6 | −0.3 | −0.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.4 |
| Return | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.4 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +2.5 | +3.2 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +3.4 | +6.7 | +10.4 | +1.0 | +2.1 | −3.8 | −0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.5 | +1.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | ±0.0 | −4.8 | −1.6 | −6.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | +1.4 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +2.1 | +10.1 | +11.9 | +1.0 | −1.8 | −0.7 | −1.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Rafael Nadal | Florian Mayer | Net, Rafael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.3 | −1.8 | +5.1 | |
| 2 | +4.2 | −1.7 | +5.9 | |
| 3 | +4.3 | +2.0 | +2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 75% | 27% 86% | 42% 73% |
| 2 | 38% 89% | 25% 83% | 38% 78% |
| 3 | 38% 70% | 42% 91% | 19% 60% |
Set to set +2.76 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Florian Mayer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 53% | 9% 33% | 47% 69% |
| 2 | 51% 67% | 12% 40% | 37% 60% |
| 3 | 36% 78% | 16% 50% | 48% 67% |
Set to set −1.25 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Rafael Nadal
10.1 points left on the table across 332 shots 3.03 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×9; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.42 pts
Florian Mayer
6.8 points left on the table across 312 shots 2.19 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts