RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2010–2017

Florian Mayer

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.1% ±3.4 raw 60.2% · tour 63.4% · 641 points
Return points won 34.0% ±3.4 raw 29.8% · tour 36.6% · 620 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.15 ±0.13 better than 88% of ATP · raw +0.14
Shot selection −1.03 ±0.34 better than 2% of ATP · raw −1.04
Execution −0.08 ±0.37 better than 64% of ATP · raw −0.25

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,303 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Florian Mayer goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 127 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 52.9%±9.9 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 19% 44.3%±12.3 42.5%
BH through the middle 13% 42.6%±13.4 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 12% 28.7%±12.6 35.1%
BH down the line 10% 40.2%±14.0 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 115 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 49% 51.7%±9.4 46.6%
FH down the line 22% 53.2%±12.2 44.7%
FH through the middle 13% 40.8%±13.7 41.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 69 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 34.1%±11.3 46.9%
BH slice crosscourt 35% 41.3%±12.2 40.9%
BH down the line 17% 43.2%±14.4 44.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 69 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 25% 58.2%±13.3 52.7%
BH crosscourt 20% 46.5%±14.1 49.1%
FH down the line 19% 52.4%±14.3 51.5%
BH through the middle 14% 44.5%±14.9 46.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +9 How much less varied Florian Mayer's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 69 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 35% 71% / 73%
Body 16% 6% ▼ 68% / 63%
T 42% 59% ▲ 65% / 75%

315 normal · 17 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 42% 71% / 73%
Body 18% 12% 62% / 63%
T 40% 46% 68% / 72%

255 normal · 52 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 63.3%±6.1 n=140 55% ▲
Body15% 64.3%±8.8 n=51 2% ▼
T42% 59.7%±6.2 n=141 43%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.62).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 60.3%±6.4 n=130 42%
Body17% 51.6%±9.1 n=52 4% ▼
T41% 59.8%±6.5 n=125 54% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.19).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.54 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.7±10.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (226 repeats, 395 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 27 32% −5.2±10.1
1stAd courtT 91 28% −0.4±6.7
1stAd courtWide 62 23% −4.2±7.2
1stDeuce courtBody 30 33% −3.4±10.0
1stDeuce courtT 88 22% −3.4±6.2
1stDeuce courtWide 100 19% −8.6±5.6
2ndAd courtBody 53 44% −5.0±9.0
2ndAd courtT 25 47% −2.4±11.1
2ndAd courtWide 37 46% −2.8±10.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 62 48% −1.5±8.6
2ndDeuce courtT 30 43% −6.5±10.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 15 50% +1.8±12.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Florian Mayer's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 10.2% · won 29% · +0.6±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH direction unknown used 10.2% · won 29% · +0.6±10.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH direction unknown → FH direction unknown used 13.6% · won 44% · −2.6±10.6 vs own baseline

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally−0.4121

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−4.2132

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Charted matches