San Francisco CH · SF · Hard · 11 Feb 2017
Vasek Pospisil v Michael Mmoh
55–30 in points · Vasek Pospisil won
Why it went the way it did
Vasek Pospisil won 11.8 more points than Michael Mmoh relative to what the serve alone predicted. Michael Mmoh's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.1, return execution −2.9, slice execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Vasek Pospisil | Michael Mmoh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.3 | +1.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −2.9 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +2.2 | −2.5 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.8 | −3.1 | −2.7 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.6 | +1.0 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.2 | −2.3 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −0.3 | +1.5 | +1.7 | +3.0 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −7.7 | −8.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Vasek Pospisil | Michael Mmoh | Net, Vasek | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.6 | −2.9 | +5.5 | |
| 2 | +0.3 | −5.9 | +6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Vasek Pospisil serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 67% | – | 32% 100% |
| 2 | 48% 73% | 9% 50% | 43% 80% |
Within sets +0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Michael Mmoh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 38% | 7% 100% | 40% 50% |
| 2 | 44% 45% | 16% 25% | 40% 60% |
Within sets −0.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Vasek Pospisil
4.3 points left on the table across 150 shots 2.85 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Michael Mmoh
3.8 points left on the table across 150 shots 2.53 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts