RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 17 charted matches · 2013–2023

Vasek Pospisil

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.7% ±3.2 raw 66.2% · tour 63.4% · 1,466 points
Return points won 35.9% ±3.3 raw 30.4% · tour 36.6% · 1,410 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.20 ±0.14 better than 13% of ATP · raw −0.20
Shot selection +0.41 ±0.11 better than 87% of ATP · raw +0.41
Execution −2.16 ±0.60 better than 2% of ATP · raw −2.12
Tactical adaptability +0.02 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 16 matches
Adaptation speed +0.11 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.96 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 22% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 5,889 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Vasek Pospisil goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 276 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 30% 32.4%±7.6 43.7%
BH crosscourt 20% 41.2%±9.4 47.6%
FH inside-out 11% 40.7%±11.4 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 41.0%±11.4 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 10% 33.4%±11.2 35.1%
FH inside-in 6% 47.0%±13.7 54.7%
BH slice down the line 5% 33.6%±13.3 37.1%
BH down the line 4% 38.4%±14.1 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 228 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 23% 45.9%±9.6 52.7%
FH through the middle 23% 40.8%±9.5 47.0%
FH down the line 19% 45.8%±10.2 51.5%
BH through the middle 12% 46.6%±11.8 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 9% 44.9%±12.9 44.8%
BH crosscourt 6% 48.0%±14.3 49.1%
FH down the line + approach 4% 73.7%±13.2 70.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 163 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 40% 52.2%±9.0 46.6%
FH through the middle 33% 32.4%±9.1 41.5%
FH down the line 22% 40.6%±11.0 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 161 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 29% 35.5%±9.6 43.8%
BH crosscourt 23% 43.2%±10.8 48.0%
BH slice crosscourt 12% 39.6%±12.9 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 10% 30.6%±12.6 35.1%
BH slice down the line 9% 29.9%±12.9 35.8%
BH down the line 7% 41.5%±14.3 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +5 How much less varied Vasek Pospisil's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 111 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 50% ▲ 78% / 73%
Body 8% 4% 56% / 63%
T 51% 46% 78% / 75%

731 normal · 28 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 47% ▼ 78% / 73%
Body 7% 5% 63% / 63%
T 38% 48% ▲ 80% / 72%

614 normal · 83 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 68.1%±4.2 n=308 54% ▲
Body8% 55.9%±8.5 n=62 0% ▼
T51% 65.5%±3.8 n=389 46% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.033): serve wide more. Gap 2.3 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 64.4%±3.9 n=377 48% ▼
Body7% 63.2%±9.0 n=47 0% ▼
T39% 70.8%±4.3 n=273 52% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.11).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.76 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +5.5±4.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (667 repeats, 757 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 48 27% −9.9±8.3
1stAd courtT 181 21% −7.0±4.6
1stAd courtWide 206 24% −3.0±4.6
1stDeuce courtBody 56 34% −3.0±8.4
1stDeuce courtT 225 21% −4.5±4.2
1stDeuce courtWide 191 23% −4.0±4.7
2ndAd courtBody 81 44% −5.4±7.7
2ndAd courtT 32 50% +0.4±10.4
2ndAd courtWide 119 48% −0.4±6.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 115 40% −9.2±6.7
2ndDeuce courtT 105 49% −0.9±7.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 44 53% +5.2±9.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Vasek Pospisil's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.4% · won 66% · −9.8±9.6 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-in used 2.3% · won 62% · −13.1±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.7% · won 61% · −14.0±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 61% · −14.8±9.7 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 59% · −16.3±10.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.0% · won 45% · +14.6±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 3.8% · won 44% · +13.6±11.0 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.4% · won 44% · +14.2±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.4% · won 42% · +12.3±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 4.1% · won 40% · +10.3±10.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 45% · +7.8±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 7.6% · won 41% · +3.4±9.6 vs own baseline
  3. BH slice through the middle → BH through the middle used 4.3% · won 41% · +3.4±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH through the middle used 4.5% · won 40% · +2.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 3.9% · won 39% · +1.0±11.4 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Vasek Pospisil wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 53% · +8.3±13.0 vs own baseline · +12.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 50% · +5.8±12.7 vs own baseline · +13.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 0.7% · won 44% · ±0.0±12.5 vs own baseline · +1.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 0.6% · won 44% · −0.3±12.8 vs own baseline · −3.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 43% · −1.7±12.9 vs own baseline · −8.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH through the middle → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 0.8% · won 40% · −4.2±12.0 vs own baseline · −6.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · ad court+1.6264
Wide 2nd serve · ad court+0.9144
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.9371
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.7296
BH to their backhand · rally+0.3120

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · ad court−4.1250
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.2350
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.5290
BH to their backhand · rally+0.2176
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.4332

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Reilly Opelka, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios, Nicolas Jarry, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle33%
Run-around forehands35%
Unforced errors / shot13.2%
Backhand slice37%
Point-ending shots29.6%
Forehand share58%
T serves · deuce51%
Deep returns33%
Wide serves · ad54%
Points at net13%
Serve & volley12%
Chipped returns17%
T serves · ad39%
1st serve in61%
Drop shots / shot1.2%
Wide serves · deuce41%
FH down the line26%
BH down the line13%
Avg rally length3.2

Plays most like

  1. Gabriel Diallo 2024–2025 plan v
  2. Tim Van Rijthoven 2021–2023 plan v
  3. Jiri Lehecka 2019–2026 plan v
  4. Denis Shapovalov 2016–2026 plan v
  5. Aleksandar Kovacevic 2021–2026 plan v
  6. Ben Shelton 2021–2026 plan v
  7. Jan Lennard Struff 2014–2025 plan v
  8. Arthur Rinderknech 2021–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  2. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005
  3. Jim Courier 1989–1999

Charted matches