Acapulco · R32 · Hard · 28 Feb 2017
Dudi Sela v Nick Kyrgios
77–81 in points · Nick Kyrgios won
Why it went the way it did
Nick Kyrgios won 2.9 more points than Dudi Sela relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dudi Sela's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.9, serve 1st execution −1.4, serve 2nd execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dudi Sela | Nick Kyrgios | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +2.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −1.6 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −0.4 | +0.8 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.8 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.4 | +1.9 | −2.1 | −0.6 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +1.7 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.2 | −0.7 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.8 | +0.6 | −1.3 |
| All shots | +1.1 | −1.3 | −2.6 | −2.8 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Dudi Sela | Nick Kyrgios | Net, Dudi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −4.9 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | −1.5 | +1.3 | −2.9 | |
| 3 | −2.1 | +3.6 | −5.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dudi Sela serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 83% | 4% 100% | 52% 71% |
| 2 | 67% 63% | 4% 100% | 29% 57% |
| 3 | 58% 50% | 3% 0% | 39% 75% |
Set to set −0.51 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nick Kyrgios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 55% | – | 56% 57% |
| 2 | 34% 82% | 3% 0% | 63% 70% |
| 3 | 32% 100% | – | 68% 77% |
Set to set −1.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.78 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dudi Sela
5.1 points left on the table across 229 shots 2.24 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Nick Kyrgios
5.4 points left on the table across 238 shots 2.27 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts