Meerbusch CH · SF · Clay · 19 Aug 2017
Andreas Haider Maurer v Karim Mohamed Maamoun
112–104 in points · Andreas Haider Maurer won
Why it went the way it did
Andreas Haider Maurer won 6.4 more points than Karim Mohamed Maamoun relative to what the serve alone predicted. Karim Mohamed Maamoun's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.8, return execution −2.4, backhand shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andreas Haider Maurer | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +1.9 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −2.4 | −2.7 |
| Forehand | −2.0 | +3.1 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −1.2 | +2.3 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | −0.9 | −1.9 | −3.3 | −0.9 | −1.9 | −0.6 | −3.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −6.7 | −2.1 | −8.9 | −0.2 | −4.8 | −1.8 | −6.7 |
| Net | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.6 | +3.2 | −0.2 | +0.7 | −1.8 | −1.3 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −0.8 | −0.4 | −1.5 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +1.8 |
| All shots | −2.4 | −4.0 | −0.5 | −6.8 | −2.7 | −4.1 | −6.4 | −13.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Andreas Haider Maurer | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | Net, Andreas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.6 | −5.7 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | −4.9 | −1.4 | −3.5 | |
| 3 | +0.6 | −6.2 | +6.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andreas Haider Maurer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 58% | 7% 100% | 50% 71% |
| 2 | 31% 31% | 10% 25% | 60% 64% |
| 3 | 50% 79% | 4% 100% | 46% 54% |
Set to set +0.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karim Mohamed Maamoun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 64% | 18% 50% | 48% 56% |
| 2 | 47% 61% | 8% 67% | 45% 53% |
| 3 | 36% 71% | 13% 50% | 51% 38% |
Set to set +0.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andreas Haider Maurer
15.4 points left on the table across 457 shots 3.36 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×13; FH inside-in rates higher · 2.12 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.78 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
Karim Mohamed Maamoun
14.5 points left on the table across 455 shots 3.19 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.47 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×16; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts