Paris Masters · F · Hard · 5 Nov 2017
Filip Krajinovic v Jack Sock
77–100 in points · Jack Sock won
Why it went the way it did
Jack Sock won 16.2 more points than Filip Krajinovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Filip Krajinovic's biggest leaks: backhand execution −5.8, forehand execution −2.0, return execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Filip Krajinovic | Jack Sock | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.6 | −1.6 | −1.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.6 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +2.3 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −0.7 | +2.3 | +5.0 | +6.7 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −5.8 | −6.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +1.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −3.0 | +0.1 | −2.9 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.6 | +2.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −1.2 | +1.4 | −8.9 | −8.7 | −1.3 | −0.3 | +9.2 | +7.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Filip Krajinovic | Jack Sock | Net, Filip | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | +2.1 | −2.5 | |
| 2 | −3.0 | +1.2 | −4.2 | |
| 3 | −5.3 | +4.2 | −9.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Filip Krajinovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 68% | 18% 57% | 28% 45% |
| 2 | 41% 50% | 28% 75% | 31% 44% |
| 3 | 53% 42% | 25% 67% | 22% 25% |
Set to set −0.99 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jack Sock serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 72% | 21% 57% | 24% 63% |
| 2 | 54% 85% | 17% 50% | 29% 57% |
| 3 | 20% 100% | 33% 60% | 47% 86% |
Set to set −0.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Filip Krajinovic
6.9 points left on the table across 294 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
Jack Sock
8.4 points left on the table across 307 shots 2.75 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts