RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 24 charted matches · 2017–2023

Filip Krajinovic

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.1% ±2.8 raw 62.2% · tour 63.4% · 1,647 points
Return points won 36.9% ±2.9 raw 32.9% · tour 36.6% · 1,549 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.18 ±0.13 better than 17% of ATP · raw −0.18
Shot selection +0.05 ±0.15 better than 59% of ATP · raw +0.05
Execution +0.56 ±0.59 better than 85% of ATP · raw +0.61
Tactical adaptability +0.23 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 23 matches
Adaptation speed +0.24 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.78 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 32% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 7,724 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Filip Krajinovic goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 423 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 21% 49.6%±7.8 52.7%
FH through the middle 21% 50.8%±8.0 47.0%
BH through the middle 19% 50.9%±8.3 46.8%
FH down the line 16% 46.4%±8.7 51.5%
BH crosscourt 13% 49.1%±9.6 49.1%
BH down the line 6% 47.1%±12.1 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 360 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 44.0%±6.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 28% 37.3%±7.3 43.7%
BH down the line 16% 51.7%±9.4 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 38.1%±10.4 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 27.1%±12.0 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 302 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 37% 46.8%±7.2 46.6%
FH through the middle 30% 46.7%±7.8 41.5%
FH down the line 21% 36.8%±8.7 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 6% 30.5%±12.1 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 3% 66.2%±14.2 69.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 265 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 52.8%±7.3 48.0%
BH through the middle 23% 43.5%±9.1 43.8%
BH down the line 18% 53.4%±10.0 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 41.9%±12.2 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 7% 31.6%±12.4 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −2 How much less varied Filip Krajinovic's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 144 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 48% 70% / 73%
Body 7% 9% 53% / 63%
T 51% 42% ▼ 69% / 75%

823 normal · 33 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 53% 71% / 73%
Body 5% 5% 63% / 63%
T 42% 41% 69% / 72%

679 normal · 111 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 65.8%±4.0 n=358 55% ▲
Body7% 54.5%±8.5 n=63 0% ▼
T51% 60.9%±3.7 n=435 45% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.039): serve wide more. Gap 3.3 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 63.3%±3.7 n=419 66% ▲
Body5% 63.2%±9.5 n=39 0% ▼
T42% 60.3%±4.2 n=332 34% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.39).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.53 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +4.6±2.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (689 repeats, 909 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 27 41% +3.5±10.7
1stAd courtT 168 22% −5.6±4.9
1stAd courtWide 240 21% −6.1±4.1
1stDeuce courtBody 37 40% +3.6±9.9
1stDeuce courtT 223 22% −2.7±4.3
1stDeuce courtWide 239 23% −4.4±4.2
2ndAd courtBody 99 52% +2.4±7.2
2ndAd courtT 64 50% +0.5±8.5
2ndAd courtWide 135 51% +2.9±6.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 117 47% −2.3±6.8
2ndDeuce courtT 127 43% −6.4±6.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 72 47% −0.6±8.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Filip Krajinovic's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → BH down the line used 2.0% · won 63% · −2.0±10.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 62% · −2.8±10.1 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.3% · won 61% · −4.2±9.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 2.4% · won 59% · −5.4±10.2 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 58% · −6.3±9.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 4.0% · won 48% · +8.4±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.6% · won 48% · +8.0±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.0% · won 45% · +5.0±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 3.7% · won 45% · +4.9±10.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 3.7% · won 45% · +4.9±10.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 60% · +11.4±9.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 55% · +7.0±9.3 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.7% · won 56% · +7.4±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 53% · +5.0±9.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 3.0% · won 53% · +4.6±9.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Filip Krajinovic wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.5% · won 61% · +11.7±12.2 vs own baseline · +31.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.7% · won 57% · +7.7±11.2 vs own baseline · +19.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gael Monfils (6/7)
  3. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 55% · +5.1±11.6 vs own baseline · +12.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roberto Bautista Agut (5/11), Gael Monfils (4/6)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 55% · +5.5±12.1 vs own baseline · +7.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gael Monfils (3/6)
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.5% · won 55% · +4.8±12.5 vs own baseline · +12.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 53% · +3.1±11.6 vs own baseline · +2.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · serve +1+2.4127
FH to the middle · return+1.8237
Wide 2nd serve · ad court+1.4128
BH to their forehand · serve +1+1.3137
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.1419

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · ad court−3.8403
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−3.0365
T 1st serve · deuce court−3.0403
FH to their forehand · rally−2.9437
FH to their forehand · serve +1−2.6184

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nicolas Jarry, Nick Kyrgios, Maxime Cressy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Deep returns38%
Through the middle31%
BH down the line26%
Drop shots / shot2.6%
T serves · deuce51%
1st serve in65%
T serves · ad42%
Wide serves · ad53%
FH down the line32%
Unforced errors / shot10.2%
Point-ending shots23.8%
Avg rally length3.9
Points at net11%
Serve & volley6%
Wide serves · deuce42%
Backhand slice17%
Chipped returns12%
Forehand share50%
Run-around forehands10%

Plays most like

  1. Arthur Cazaux 2020–2025 plan v
  2. Denis Istomin 2006–2021 plan v
  3. Nuno Borges 2021–2026 plan v
  4. Hubert Hurkacz 2018–2026 plan v
  5. Ugo Humbert 2019–2026 plan v
  6. Jakub Mensik 2022–2026 plan v
  7. Viktor Troicki 2009–2021 plan v
  8. Gregoire Barrere 2016–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  2. Marat Safin 1998–2009
  3. Gaston Gaudio 2002–2005

Charted matches