Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 18 Jan 2018
Karen Khachanov v Juan Martin Del Potro
146–148 in points · Juan Martin Del Potro won
Why it went the way it did
Juan Martin Del Potro won 3.5 more points than Karen Khachanov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Karen Khachanov's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.5, return execution −1.7, backhand shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Karen Khachanov | Juan Martin Del Potro | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.2 | +5.2 | +5.3 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.6 | −1.7 | −1.2 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +3.5 | +4.3 | +7.6 | +1.5 | +3.2 | +10.1 | +14.8 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | −1.1 | +3.1 | +2.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −4.5 | −1.0 | −5.5 | +1.1 | −7.7 | +1.7 | −5.0 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +1.8 | +2.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −1.6 | +10.1 | +9.0 | +4.0 | −5.8 | +14.2 | +12.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Karen Khachanov | Juan Martin Del Potro | Net, Karen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.6 | +5.5 | −3.0 | |
| 2 | +4.0 | +2.4 | +1.6 | |
| 3 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −0.2 | |
| 4 | +2.0 | +3.8 | −1.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Karen Khachanov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 60% | 6% 0% | 35% 75% |
| 2 | 56% 70% | 2% 100% | 41% 82% |
| 3 | 52% 62% | 2% 100% | 46% 65% |
| 4 | 52% 67% | 9% 0% | 39% 78% |
Set to set +0.81 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Juan Martin Del Potro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 71% | – | 50% 71% |
| 2 | 51% 74% | 4% 100% | 44% 65% |
| 3 | 65% 65% | – | 35% 64% |
| 4 | 84% 77% | – | 16% 40% |
Set to set +0.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Karen Khachanov
11.4 points left on the table across 483 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
Juan Martin Del Potro
7.9 points left on the table across 476 shots 1.65 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts