Acapulco · R16 · Hard · 28 Feb 2018
Juan Martin Del Potro v David Ferrer
89–91 in points · Juan Martin Del Potro won
Why it went the way it did
David Ferrer won 4.2 more points than Juan Martin Del Potro relative to what the serve alone predicted. Juan Martin Del Potro's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.7, slice shot selection −3.8, serve 1st execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Juan Martin Del Potro | David Ferrer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −3.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Return | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +3.4 | −4.7 | −0.9 | +0.1 | +4.3 | +2.9 | +7.3 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +2.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −1.9 | −1.3 |
| Slice | +1.1 | −3.8 | +1.1 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | +0.3 | −1.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.4 | +1.2 |
| Touch | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | +1.2 | +0.2 |
| All shots | +2.7 | +0.6 | −4.1 | −0.8 | −0.4 | +2.0 | +1.7 | +3.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Juan Martin Del Potro | David Ferrer | Net, Juan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.8 | |
| 2 | −2.5 | +2.4 | −4.9 | |
| 3 | +2.3 | +0.9 | +1.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Juan Martin Del Potro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 68% | 9% 67% | 31% 70% |
| 2 | 59% 45% | 12% 50% | 29% 80% |
| 3 | 53% 67% | 6% 50% | 41% 71% |
Set to set +0.04 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
David Ferrer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 80% | 30% 71% | 26% 67% |
| 2 | 31% 44% | 45% 85% | 24% 71% |
| 3 | 33% 44% | 41% 73% | 26% 71% |
Set to set +0.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Juan Martin Del Potro
6.0 points left on the table across 366 shots 1.64 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
David Ferrer
7.4 points left on the table across 363 shots 2.04 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts