Charleston · R32 · Clay · 4 Apr 2018
Ashleigh Barty v Tatjana Maria
91–73 in points · Ashleigh Barty won
Why it went the way it did
Ashleigh Barty won 9.1 more points than Tatjana Maria relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tatjana Maria's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −9.0, return shot selection −3.3, touch shot selection −3.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ashleigh Barty | Tatjana Maria | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +2.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.8 | +2.7 |
| Return | +0.4 | −0.4 | −4.5 | −4.6 | ±0.0 | −3.3 | +1.6 | −1.6 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +3.7 | −1.7 | +2.3 | −0.1 | +1.9 | −2.0 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +1.7 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −1.6 | −1.2 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −3.2 | −1.1 | −3.9 | −0.3 | −9.0 | +2.2 | −7.0 |
| Net | +0.6 | +2.6 | +0.4 | +3.5 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −3.1 | +1.2 | −1.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.5 | +2.2 | −3.8 | +1.0 | −0.4 | −12.5 | +4.8 | −8.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Ashleigh Barty | Tatjana Maria | Net, Ashleigh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.2 | −0.8 | −1.4 | |
| 2 | −0.2 | −2.9 | +2.7 | |
| 3 | +3.3 | −4.5 | +7.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ashleigh Barty serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 67% | – | 52% 69% |
| 2 | 39% 64% | 14% 60% | 47% 76% |
| 3 | 20% 100% | – | 80% 75% |
Set to set +1.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tatjana Maria serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 78% | 23% 25% | 51% 83% |
| 2 | 32% 86% | 9% 0% | 59% 62% |
| 3 | 16% 75% | 24% 33% | 60% 40% |
Set to set +0.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ashleigh Barty
6.7 points left on the table across 287 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle hit Smash through the middle ×3; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH drop shot down the line ×2; FH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Tatjana Maria
7.5 points left on the table across 244 shots 3.06 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH lob through the middle ×4; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts