RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 50 charted matches · 2013–2022

Ashleigh Barty

Archetype: Runs around the backhand · Forehand-dominant

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.1% ±2.5 raw 64.3% · tour 56.3% · 3,554 points
Return points won 46.8% ±2.7 raw 44.1% · tour 43.7% · 3,724 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.27 ±0.07 better than 93% of WTA · raw +0.26
Shot selection −1.27 ±0.17 better than 2% of WTA · raw −1.29
Execution +0.79 ±0.31 better than 87% of WTA · raw +0.66
Tactical adaptability +0.13 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 50 matches
Adaptation speed +0.08 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.65 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 42% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 19,316 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Ashleigh Barty goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 1,341 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 28% 49.3%±4.1 40.4%
BH slice through the middle 22% 39.2%±4.6 34.4%
BH through the middle 15% 45.2%±5.6 43.3%
BH crosscourt 13% 48.7%±6.0 47.6%
BH slice down the line 8% 46.0%±7.2 31.7%
BH down the line 5% 52.0%±8.6 46.8%
FH inside-out 3% 57.5%±10.5 52.5%
FH inside-in 3% 60.9%±10.7 55.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 894 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 28% 57.6%±4.9 52.7%
FH down the line 23% 48.0%±5.4 52.2%
FH through the middle 15% 56.8%±6.7 45.8%
BH slice through the middle 7% 54.0%±8.8 44.8%
BH through the middle 7% 43.3%±9.2 46.2%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 57.4%±9.5 49.5%
BH crosscourt 5% 41.8%±10.1 50.9%
BH slice down the line 3% 48.6%±11.5 43.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 852 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 60% 48.5%±3.6 46.7%
FH through the middle 19% 49.3%±6.1 41.3%
FH down the line 14% 47.5%±6.9 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 4% 29.1%±10.5 29.2%
FH slice crosscourt 1% 31.3%±13.9 31.9%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 794 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 25% 48.1%±5.5 39.6%
BH slice through the middle 22% 44.8%±5.8 33.2%
BH through the middle 19% 42.5%±6.2 43.0%
BH crosscourt 15% 46.2%±6.9 47.8%
BH slice down the line 6% 36.3%±9.4 28.7%
BH down the line 6% 36.7%±9.8 46.2%
FH inside-out 3% 53.9%±12.8 55.4%
FH inside-in 2% 57.1%±13.4 55.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Ashleigh Barty's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 308 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 33% ▼ 73% / 66%
Body 8% 15% 64% / 57%
T 51% 52% 78% / 68%

1,785 normal · 73 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 31% ▼ 73% / 66%
Body 9% 8% 62% / 56%
T 45% 60% ▲ 73% / 64%

1,452 normal · 235 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 64.5%±2.8 n=755 42% ▲
Body8% 65.7%±5.8 n=154 0% ▼
T51% 64.4%±2.5 n=949 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.92).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 63.4%±2.8 n=745 38% ▼
Body9% 55.2%±6.1 n=150 0% ▼
T47% 66.4%±2.7 n=792 62% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.006): serve T more. Gap 2.3 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.0 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.69 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.7±2.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,264 repeats, 2,181 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 183 50% +6.4±5.6
1stAd courtT 418 41% +5.0±3.8
1stAd courtWide 498 36% +2.0±3.4
1stDeuce courtBody 214 43% +0.7±5.2
1stDeuce courtT 512 38% +6.2±3.4
1stDeuce courtWide 459 33% −0.8±3.5
2ndAd courtBody 291 49% −5.7±4.6
2ndAd courtT 99 62% +7.4±7.0
2ndAd courtWide 310 51% −2.0±4.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 320 52% −2.9±4.4
2ndDeuce courtT 306 54% −2.5±4.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 106 56% +2.2±7.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Ashleigh Barty's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 70% · +2.5±6.6 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 66% · −1.9±6.6 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 61% · −6.9±5.9 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.0% · won 59% · −8.9±7.2 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 57% · −10.4±8.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 2.1% · won 50% · +5.0±8.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.1% · won 48% · +2.8±8.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 2.2% · won 47% · +2.3±8.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.2% · won 47% · +1.8±8.4 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.8% · won 46% · +0.9±7.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.6% · won 54% · +5.6±5.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.3% · won 53% · +4.2±5.7 vs own baseline
  3. BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 54% · +5.3±7.3 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 1.9% · won 53% · +5.1±8.1 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 2.4% · won 52% · +4.1±7.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Ashleigh Barty wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 59% · +9.1±8.3 vs own baseline · +7.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elina Svitolina (6/12), Shelby Rogers (8/9)
  2. T serve → FH through the middle return, short → FH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 66% · +16.4±11.5 vs own baseline · +30.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. T serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 61% · +11.5±11.6 vs own baseline · +21.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, deep → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 59% · +9.5±11.1 vs own baseline · +17.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Kiki Bertens (6/9)
  5. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 59% · +9.2±10.9 vs own baseline · +9.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.2% · won 60% · +9.8±11.9 vs own baseline · +11.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 2nd serve · deuce court+4.8305
FH to their backhand · return+3.3271
Wide 2nd serve · deuce court+2.6143
T 2nd serve · ad court+2.4123
FH to their forehand · serve +1+2.3588

Most exposed to

Wide 2nd serve · ad court−1.2310
BH to the middle · serve +1−0.5252
Body 2nd serve · deuce court−0.3320
T 2nd serve · deuce court−0.3306
T 1st serve · ad court−0.1692

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Sloane Stephens, Karolina Muchova, Caroline Wozniacki, Ons Jabeur, Magda Linette

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Backhand slice60%
Chipped returns31%
T serves · deuce51%
Run-around forehands17%
T serves · ad47%
Wide serves · ad44%
Avg rally length4.2
Points at net8%
Point-ending shots24.7%
Unforced errors / shot10.8%
Forehand share54%
Wide serves · deuce41%
Serve & volley0%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
Deep returns31%
Through the middle27%
FH down the line25%
BH down the line17%
1st serve in58%

Plays most like

  1. Polona Hercog 2013–2021 plan v
  2. Kiki Bertens 2012–2021 plan v
  3. Francesca Schiavone 2006–2017 plan v
  4. Clara Tauson 2020–2026 plan v
  5. Karolina Muchova 2019–2026 plan v
  6. Barbora Krejcikova 2017–2026 plan v
  7. Diane Parry 2021–2026 plan v
  8. Roberta Vinci 2012–2017 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Lindsay Davenport 1995–2006
  2. Monica Seles 1990–2003
  3. Conchita Martinez 1993–2003

Charted matches