US Open · R16 · Hard · 3 Sep 2018
Juan Martin Del Potro v Borna Coric
86–61 in points · Juan Martin Del Potro won
Why it went the way it did
Juan Martin Del Potro won 13.1 more points than Borna Coric relative to what the serve alone predicted. Borna Coric's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.0, slice shot selection −1.7, net execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Juan Martin Del Potro | Borna Coric | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | +2.9 | +3.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.7 | −0.1 | +3.5 | +4.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +4.1 | +5.8 | −0.2 | +1.5 | −7.0 | −5.6 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.1 | −2.7 | −2.5 | +0.2 | −1.3 | +3.6 | +2.6 |
| Slice | +1.1 | −4.7 | +2.5 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | +0.3 | −1.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −1.4 | −0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +2.4 | −3.2 | +10.0 | +9.1 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −3.8 | −4.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Juan Martin Del Potro | Borna Coric | Net, Juan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.7 | −0.7 | +4.4 | |
| 2 | +0.4 | −0.5 | +0.9 | |
| 3 | +5.1 | −2.7 | +7.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Juan Martin Del Potro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% 79% | 4% 0% | 26% 43% |
| 2 | 55% 75% | – | 45% 69% |
| 3 | 46% 100% | – | 54% 86% |
Set to set −1.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Borna Coric serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 45% | 3% 0% | 43% 69% |
| 2 | 56% 70% | – | 44% 75% |
| 3 | 45% 50% | 9% 50% | 45% 40% |
Set to set −0.66 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.64 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Juan Martin Del Potro
5.2 points left on the table across 279 shots 1.86 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH down the line ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Borna Coric
5.5 points left on the table across 280 shots 1.98 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts