St Petersburg · R32 · Hard · 19 Sep 2018
Mikhail Youzhny v Mirza Basic
77–68 in points · Mikhail Youzhny won
Why it went the way it did
Mikhail Youzhny won 5.2 more points than Mirza Basic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mirza Basic's biggest leaks: return execution −3.1, slice shot selection −2.0, touch execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mikhail Youzhny | Mirza Basic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.6 | −1.5 | +2.2 | +1.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −3.1 | −3.1 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.5 | +2.0 | +3.3 | +0.4 | +2.1 | −1.1 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +0.2 | −0.4 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −4.7 | +1.4 | −3.7 | +0.2 | −2.0 | −0.8 | −2.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +2.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.3 | −3.8 | +4.9 | +1.4 | +1.2 | +0.3 | −5.2 | −3.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Mikhail Youzhny | Mirza Basic | Net, Mikhail | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −0.6 | |
| 2 | +1.7 | −4.1 | +5.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mikhail Youzhny serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 60% | – | 51% 76% |
| 2 | 41% 75% | 7% 50% | 52% 67% |
Set to set −0.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mirza Basic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% 67% | 3% 0% | 24% 89% |
| 2 | 61% 48% | 5% 100% | 34% 54% |
Set to set +1.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.65 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mikhail Youzhny
6.8 points left on the table across 233 shots 2.91 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Mirza Basic
4.7 points left on the table across 245 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.18 pts