RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 38 charted matches · 2002–2018

Mikhail Youzhny

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.9% ±2.6 raw 61.1% · tour 63.4% · 3,585 points
Return points won 38.0% ±2.7 raw 34.7% · tour 36.6% · 3,441 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.03 ±0.06 better than 67% of ATP · raw +0.03
Shot selection −1.03 ±0.16 better than 1% of ATP · raw −1.04
Execution +0.33 ±0.37 better than 79% of ATP · raw +0.23
Tactical adaptability −0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 37 matches
Adaptation speed +0.10 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.27 ±0.59 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 2,573 shots · better than 40% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.57 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 52% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 19,039 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Mikhail Youzhny goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,310 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 25% 42.7%±4.4 42.5%
BH crosscourt 24% 45.8%±4.5 47.6%
BH down the line 15% 46.7%±5.5 46.4%
BH through the middle 15% 41.4%±5.6 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 9% 37.8%±6.7 35.1%
BH slice down the line 8% 32.6%±6.8 37.1%
FH inside-out 2% 53.4%±13.0 51.8%
BH drop shot down the line 1% 43.3%±14.6 47.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 917 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 37% 44.1%±4.3 44.7%
FH crosscourt 30% 44.5%±4.8 46.6%
FH through the middle 26% 43.1%±5.1 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 3% 27.7%±11.2 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 2% 66.3%±12.5 69.3%
FH slice down the line 2% 26.0%±11.5 25.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 900 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 22% 51.0%±5.5 51.5%
FH crosscourt 20% 55.7%±5.7 52.7%
BH crosscourt 11% 52.0%±7.5 49.1%
BH through the middle 11% 47.3%±7.7 46.8%
FH through the middle 10% 45.1%±7.7 47.0%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 47.7%±8.5 47.0%
BH down the line 7% 51.4%±8.9 48.3%
BH slice through the middle 4% 46.2%±11.2 44.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 747 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 26% 42.4%±5.6 42.1%
BH crosscourt 25% 45.0%±5.7 48.0%
BH slice through the middle 14% 31.7%±6.9 35.1%
BH slice down the line 12% 35.9%±7.6 35.8%
BH down the line 11% 49.3%±8.1 46.5%
BH through the middle 8% 47.2%±9.2 43.8%
BH drop shot down the line 2% 47.5%±13.5 47.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Mikhail Youzhny's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 336 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 51% 71% / 73%
Body 5% 4% 53% / 63%
T 52% 46% 69% / 75%

1,757 normal · 83 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 60% 57% 67% / 73%
Body 5% 4% 62% / 63%
T 35% 39% 69% / 72%

1,428 normal · 253 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 64.6%±2.7 n=791 56% ▲
Body5% 52.5%±7.5 n=90 0% ▼
T52% 60.0%±2.6 n=959 44% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.010): serve wide more. Gap 2.4 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide60% 60.0%±2.5 n=1,003 51% ▼
Body5% 56.4%±7.8 n=79 0% ▼
T36% 62.4%±3.2 n=599 49% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.48).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.60 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.5±2.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,582 repeats, 1,863 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 53 40% +2.9±8.8
1stAd courtT 402 29% +0.5±3.6
1stAd courtWide 525 25% −2.3±3.0
1stDeuce courtBody 78 30% −7.1±7.2
1stDeuce courtT 494 21% −4.2±2.9
1stDeuce courtWide 504 30% +2.8±3.3
2ndAd courtBody 127 51% +1.5±6.6
2ndAd courtT 92 50% +0.5±7.4
2ndAd courtWide 416 45% −3.2±3.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 236 49% −0.3±5.0
2ndDeuce courtT 315 50% +0.7±4.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 151 46% −2.0±6.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Mikhail Youzhny's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 59% · −4.8±6.8 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.7% · won 57% · −6.8±7.6 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 57% · −6.9±7.5 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 56% · −7.5±7.2 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 56% · −7.1±6.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.5% · won 50% · +12.9±8.5 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.0% · won 48% · +11.1±9.2 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.1% · won 46% · +8.6±7.9 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, short used 2.5% · won 46% · +8.5±8.6 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → FH down the line, mid used 2.4% · won 46% · +8.4±8.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 57% · +10.8±6.6 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH down the line used 1.8% · won 56% · +9.9±7.9 vs own baseline
  3. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 56% · +10.3±8.9 vs own baseline
  4. BH slice down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 57% · +11.2±9.5 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 53% · +7.1±7.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Mikhail Youzhny wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 58% · +10.7±9.6 vs own baseline · +10.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/7), Paul Henri Mathieu (5/7)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 55% · +7.9±8.1 vs own baseline · +9.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Blaz Kavcic (3/7), Jo Wilfried Tsonga (3/6)
  3. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → BH through the middle used 0.2% · won 62% · +14.1±12.4 vs own baseline · +34.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH down the line → BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 59% · +11.5±11.6 vs own baseline · +20.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 54% · +6.4±8.1 vs own baseline · +6.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marin Cilic (2/7), Roger Federer (6/11)
  6. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.5% · won 55% · +7.7±9.4 vs own baseline · +10.3 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · return +1+3.3188
BH slice to the middle · return+2.0439
FH to their backhand · return+1.8335
FH to the middle · serve +1+1.8200
BH slice to the middle · rally+1.8370

Most exposed to

BH slice to the middle · return−3.7252
BH slice to their backhand · return−2.6176
BH to the middle · return−1.7737
FH to the middle · return−1.5546
Wide 2nd serve · ad court−1.5416

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line44%
Chipped returns38%
Backhand slice43%
Wide serves · ad60%
BH down the line27%
T serves · deuce52%
Avg rally length4.4
1st serve in63%
Drop shots / shot1.9%
Deep returns27%
Points at net11%
Wide serves · deuce43%
Unforced errors / shot9.3%
Serve & volley1%
Point-ending shots21.7%
T serves · ad36%
Through the middle23%
Forehand share46%
Run-around forehands5%

Plays most like

  1. Daniel Altmaier 2019–2025 plan v
  2. Damir Dzumhur 2015–2023 plan v
  3. Bernard Tomic 2010–2025 plan v
  4. Denis Kudla 2014–2021 plan v
  5. Ivan Ljubicic 2003–2011 plan v
  6. Jarkko Nieminen 2003–2014 plan v
  7. David Nalbandian 2002–2012 plan v
  8. Richard Gasquet 2002–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Joao Fonseca 2024–2026
  2. Ivan Lendl 1979–1994
  3. Brad Gilbert 1987–1994

Charted matches