Brisbane · QF · Hard · 3 Jan 2019
Jeremy Chardy v Yasutaka Uchiyama
94–90 in points · Jeremy Chardy won
Why it went the way it did
Jeremy Chardy won 1.4 more points than Yasutaka Uchiyama relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yasutaka Uchiyama's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.4, return execution −2.6, net execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jeremy Chardy | Yasutaka Uchiyama | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +1.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | −2.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.3 | −1.8 | −2.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −2.6 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +4.0 | −5.9 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | −3.4 | −1.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −0.8 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −3.0 | +0.1 | −2.9 | −0.1 | −1.3 | +0.7 | −0.7 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −1.8 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +1.2 | +1.4 | −10.2 | −7.5 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −9.4 | −9.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Jeremy Chardy | Yasutaka Uchiyama | Net, Jeremy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.4 | −3.2 | +3.6 | |
| 2 | −5.9 | −1.9 | −3.9 | |
| 3 | −2.1 | −3.8 | +1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jeremy Chardy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 85% | – | 52% 57% |
| 2 | 55% 44% | 3% 100% | 41% 67% |
| 3 | 45% 71% | – | 55% 71% |
Set to set −0.43 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yasutaka Uchiyama serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 53% | – | 32% 67% |
| 2 | 54% 64% | 8% 50% | 38% 80% |
| 3 | 42% 67% | 3% 0% | 56% 70% |
Set to set +1.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jeremy Chardy
4.8 points left on the table across 225 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH volley through the middle + approach ×1; FH volley crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.19 pts
Yasutaka Uchiyama
5.2 points left on the table across 218 shots 2.38 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts