Brisbane · QF · Hard · 4 Jan 2019
Alex De Minaur v Jo Wilfried Tsonga
66–83 in points · Jo Wilfried Tsonga won
Why it went the way it did
Jo Wilfried Tsonga won 11.0 more points than Alex De Minaur relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alex De Minaur's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.9, forehand execution −1.0, touch shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alex De Minaur | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.9 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +2.1 | +2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +2.7 | +2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +4.4 | −1.0 | +3.9 | +1.1 | +5.9 | +2.2 | +9.3 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +0.6 | +1.9 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −2.1 | +0.5 | −3.2 | +1.1 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.7 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +2.0 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −1.0 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +2.2 | +1.6 | +4.5 | +2.6 | +4.1 | +8.8 | +15.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Alex De Minaur | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | Net, Alex | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.4 | +7.5 | −6.2 | |
| 2 | +3.2 | +8.0 | −4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alex De Minaur serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 50% | 25% 44% | 31% 64% |
| 2 | 40% 50% | 29% 69% | 31% 71% |
Set to set +0.15 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.69 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jo Wilfried Tsonga serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 58% | – | 57% 81% |
| 2 | 46% 67% | – | 54% 81% |
Within sets +1.74 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alex De Minaur
5.0 points left on the table across 277 shots 1.79 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
Jo Wilfried Tsonga
6.1 points left on the table across 308 shots 1.98 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts