Brisbane · SF · Hard · 5 Jan 2019
Jeremy Chardy v Kei Nishikori
33–60 in points · Kei Nishikori won
Why it went the way it did
Kei Nishikori won 11.5 more points than Jeremy Chardy relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jeremy Chardy's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.5, backhand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jeremy Chardy | Kei Nishikori | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +2.7 | +2.7 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +1.3 | +1.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.2 | −4.5 | −4.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +2.9 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | −2.9 | −2.8 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.8 | −1.1 | −3.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −1.6 | −5.2 | −6.7 | −0.1 | −1.6 | +6.5 | +4.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Jeremy Chardy | Kei Nishikori | Net, Jeremy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.6 | +0.9 | −4.4 | |
| 2 | −3.1 | +3.9 | −7.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jeremy Chardy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 63% | 6% 0% | 44% 43% |
| 2 | 62% 38% | 10% 0% | 29% 83% |
Within sets −0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kei Nishikori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 100% | 30% 50% | 40% 75% |
| 2 | 52% 82% | 14% 67% | 33% 86% |
Within sets +1.97 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jeremy Chardy
2.4 points left on the table across 90 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your unknown spot, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice inside-out rates higher · 0.13 pts
Kei Nishikori
1.8 points left on the table across 81 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.10 pts