RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 72 charted matches · 2011–2025

Kei Nishikori

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.0% ±2.4 raw 62.0% · tour 63.4% · 5,888 points
Return points won 40.8% ±2.5 raw 37.6% · tour 36.6% · 5,863 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.06 ±0.05 better than 73% of ATP · raw +0.06
Shot selection −0.30 ±0.07 better than 23% of ATP · raw −0.30
Execution −0.05 ±0.28 better than 66% of ATP · raw −0.11
Tactical adaptability +0.18 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 69 matches
Adaptation speed +0.13 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution +0.27 ±0.50 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 3,521 shots · better than 92% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.29 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 85% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 29,842 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Kei Nishikori goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,895 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 49% 49.6%±2.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 16% 46.4%±4.6 43.7%
BH down the line 13% 56.3%±5.0 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 33.8%±6.1 42.5%
FH inside-out 5% 65.8%±7.2 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 3% 28.2%±8.4 35.1%
FH inside-in 2% 57.5%±10.0 54.7%
FH through the middle 1% 53.4%±12.2 45.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,495 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 24% 57.6%±4.2 51.5%
FH crosscourt 22% 54.7%±4.4 52.7%
FH through the middle 17% 51.1%±5.0 47.0%
BH crosscourt 16% 57.6%±5.1 49.1%
BH through the middle 11% 51.3%±6.0 46.8%
BH down the line 6% 55.9%±7.7 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 2% 79.4%±9.6 70.5%
BH slice crosscourt 1% 43.2%±14.6 47.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,199 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 47.5%±3.7 46.6%
FH down the line 27% 47.4%±4.5 44.7%
FH through the middle 22% 46.2%±4.9 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 5% 26.4%±8.0 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 30.8%±11.2 30.9%
FH slice down the line 2% 33.6%±11.6 25.6%
FH down the line + approach 1% 69.9%±12.4 69.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,124 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 50.0%±3.6 48.0%
BH down the line 16% 50.7%±5.8 46.5%
BH through the middle 15% 51.5%±6.1 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 39.5%±6.7 42.1%
FH inside-out 4% 57.3%±10.3 52.6%
BH slice through the middle 4% 25.8%±9.1 35.1%
BH slice down the line 2% 40.4%±12.0 35.8%
FH inside-in 2% 54.9%±13.3 54.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Kei Nishikori's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 544 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 40% 70% / 73%
Body 17% 11% 62% / 63%
T 41% 49% ▲ 73% / 75%

2,930 normal · 146 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 45% 70% / 73%
Body 17% 18% 63% / 63%
T 36% 37% 68% / 72%

2,403 normal · 398 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 64.9%±2.2 n=1,297 55% ▲
Body16% 59.0%±3.5 n=502 3% ▼
T42% 65.0%±2.2 n=1,277 42%

Off equilibrium (p = 0.020): serve T more. Gap 1.0 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 60.4%±2.2 n=1,326 60% ▲
Body17% 57.2%±3.6 n=473 4% ▼
T36% 60.3%±2.5 n=1,002 36%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.38).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.62 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.1±2.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (2,220 repeats, 3,513 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 172 39% +1.7±5.6
1stAd courtT 730 26% −1.8±2.6
1stAd courtWide 807 26% −1.5±2.5
1stDeuce courtBody 220 35% −1.5±5.0
1stDeuce courtT 744 24% −1.4±2.5
1stDeuce courtWide 909 29% +2.1±2.4
2ndAd courtBody 351 58% +8.3±4.2
2ndAd courtT 237 50% +0.5±5.0
2ndAd courtWide 500 54% +5.9±3.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 405 56% +7.5±3.9
2ndDeuce courtT 456 51% +1.7±3.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 320 48% −0.5±4.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Kei Nishikori's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 64% · −1.3±6.0 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 2.2% · won 61% · −3.9±6.6 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.1% · won 60% · −4.9±6.8 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 58% · −7.0±6.7 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.2% · won 59% · −6.3±5.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.2% · won 59% · +19.5±7.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.5% · won 51% · +11.0±5.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.1% · won 55% · +15.7±7.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.2% · won 53% · +13.0±7.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.8% · won 49% · +9.0±6.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 4.4% · won 58% · +6.8±4.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.0% · won 58% · +6.6±4.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 57% · +6.2±5.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH down the line → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 59% · +7.9±6.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 1.2% · won 60% · +9.1±8.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Kei Nishikori wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 67% · +14.7±9.3 vs own baseline · +24.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 59% · +7.4±6.1 vs own baseline · +11.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Peter Polansky (3/8), Novak Djokovic (14/26)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle → FH down the line used 0.2% · won 68% · +15.9±10.3 vs own baseline · +25.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 64% · +12.0±9.3 vs own baseline · +18.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (5/7), Grigor Dimitrov (5/6)
  5. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 65% · +13.0±10.4 vs own baseline · +26.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 60% · +7.7±7.5 vs own baseline · +11.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · rally+2.8802
BH to their forehand · serve +1+2.7368
FH to their forehand · return+2.5456
BH to their forehand · return +1+2.2269
BH to their forehand · return+2.0279

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · return−2.4467
FH slice to the middle · rally−2.3127
FH to their forehand · return +1−1.7450
FH to their forehand · serve +1−1.6651
T 1st serve · ad court−1.51,174

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Miomir Kecmanovic +1.26, Rafael Nadal +1.19, Casper Ruud +1.09, Nishesh Basavareddy +1.08, Pedro Martinez +1.00

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +1.10, Fabian Marozsan +1.04, Pedro Martinez +0.96, Alexander Shevchenko +0.91, Roberto Carballes Baena +0.86

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Miomir Kecmanovic, Andy Murray, Joao Fonseca, Bernard Tomic, Albert Ramos

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line35%
Deep returns31%
Avg rally length4.0
Chipped returns16%
Point-ending shots24.3%
1st serve in62%
BH down the line20%
Drop shots / shot1.5%
Unforced errors / shot9.9%
Run-around forehands17%
Wide serves · deuce42%
Serve & volley3%
Wide serves · ad47%
T serves · ad36%
Backhand slice14%
T serves · deuce42%
Points at net8%
Forehand share50%
Through the middle21%

Plays most like

  1. Tommy Paul 2016–2026 plan v
  2. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  3. Fabio Fognini 2012–2025 plan v
  4. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v
  5. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
  6. Mikhail Kukushkin 2014–2022 plan v
  7. Benjamin Bonzi 2021–2025 plan v
  8. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Magnus Norman 2000–2001
  2. Andre Agassi 1988–2006
  3. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002

Charted matches