Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 14 Jan 2019
Astra Sharma v Priscilla Hon
112–100 in points · Astra Sharma won
Why it went the way it did
Astra Sharma won 6.9 more points than Priscilla Hon relative to what the serve alone predicted. Priscilla Hon's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.2, slice execution −3.2, slice shot selection −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Astra Sharma | Priscilla Hon | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.7 | +0.2 | +3.1 | +4.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −3.0 | −3.6 | −0.7 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +2.3 | −5.9 | −4.3 | −0.3 | +1.6 | −1.3 | −0.1 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.9 | −1.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +1.1 | −3.2 | −1.9 |
| Slice | −0.5 | −1.9 | +1.4 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −3.2 | −5.3 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.2 | +1.6 | +1.7 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −1.4 |
| All shots | −0.9 | +1.2 | −3.5 | −3.1 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −9.1 | −10.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Astra Sharma | Priscilla Hon | Net, Astra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | −5.4 | +0.9 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | −1.7 | −1.0 | |
| 3 | +4.1 | −2.9 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Astra Sharma serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 58% | 6% 33% | 40% 68% |
| 2 | 57% 48% | 3% 100% | 41% 60% |
| 3 | 52% 64% | 5% 100% | 43% 89% |
Set to set −0.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Priscilla Hon serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 73% | 15% 33% | 56% 59% |
| 2 | 27% 60% | 11% 25% | 62% 61% |
| 3 | 32% 56% | 25% 43% | 43% 42% |
Set to set −0.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Astra Sharma
9.3 points left on the table across 262 shots 3.55 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
Priscilla Hon
8.5 points left on the table across 275 shots 3.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts