RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2019–2025

Astra Sharma

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 59.4% ±3.8 raw 59.5% · tour 56.3% · 501 points
Return points won 45.4% ±3.9 raw 47.5% · tour 43.7% · 495 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.06 ±0.08 better than 42% of WTA · raw −0.04
Shot selection +0.12 ±0.44 better than 57% of WTA · raw +0.17
Execution −1.59 ±1.43 better than 9% of WTA · raw −1.26

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,377 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Astra Sharma goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 137 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 23% 42.2%±11.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 20% 45.1%±11.8 43.3%
BH slice through the middle 16% 37.8%±12.3 34.4%
FH inside-out 12% 40.3%±13.4 52.5%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 46.0%±13.9 40.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 115 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 58.2%±9.8 52.7%
FH down the line 28% 47.0%±11.4 52.2%
FH through the middle 20% 53.8%±12.5 45.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 93 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 33% 47.6%±11.5 41.3%
FH crosscourt 31% 41.5%±11.6 46.7%
FH down the line 25% 51.1%±12.5 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 11% 26.2%±13.2 29.2%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 79 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 28% 44.2%±12.6 47.8%
BH through the middle 22% 39.5%±13.2 43.0%
BH slice through the middle 13% 32.1%±14.0 33.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +7 How much less varied Astra Sharma's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 60 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 46% 61% / 66%
Body 18% 15% 63% / 57%
T 35% 38% 74% / 68%

246 normal · 13 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 60% 69% / 66%
Body 15% 11% 52% / 56%
T 31% 30% 66% / 64%

194 normal · 47 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 52.8%±6.7 n=122 47%
Body18% 61.4%±9.1 n=47 3% ▼
T35% 66.6%±7.1 n=90 50% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.026): serve T more. Gap 7.5 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 59.4%±6.4 n=131 54%
Body15% 54.8%±10.2 n=35 0% ▼
T31% 63.4%±7.7 n=75 46% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.31).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.74 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.5±10.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (166 repeats, 322 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 42 43% −0.6±9.6
1stAd courtT 46 38% +2.2±9.1
1stAd courtWide 55 43% +8.3±8.8
1stDeuce courtBody 32 45% +2.2±10.4
1stDeuce courtT 57 29% −2.7±8.0
1stDeuce courtWide 58 35% +1.4±8.4
2ndAd courtBody 32 57% +2.2±10.3
2ndAd courtT 23 59% +4.4±11.1
2ndAd courtWide 37 54% +0.3±10.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 38 58% +3.4±9.9
2ndDeuce courtT 30 60% +3.7±10.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 39 58% +4.4±9.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Astra Sharma's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 8.6% · won 73% · +0.8±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 8.2% · won 57% · −15.1±11.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. Not enough data

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Astra Sharma wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 57% · +7.1±12.5 vs own baseline · +9.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.6131
FH to their backhand · rally−0.6152
FH to their forehand · rally−1.2135
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.2122

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally+3.1129

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Yulia Putintseva, Elsa Jacquemot, Caroline Wozniacki

Charted matches