Rotterdam · R32 · Hard · 11 Feb 2019
Robin Haase v Mikhail Kukushkin
56–68 in points · Mikhail Kukushkin won
Why it went the way it did
Mikhail Kukushkin won 6.0 more points than Robin Haase relative to what the serve alone predicted. Robin Haase's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −7.4, backhand execution −2.1, forehand direction choices −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Robin Haase | Mikhail Kukushkin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +1.9 | +0.3 | −0.3 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | −1.0 | +1.3 | +2.7 | +3.0 | −1.0 | +2.0 | +2.0 | +2.9 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −2.8 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | +3.7 | +2.7 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −7.4 | +1.0 | −6.0 | −0.3 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −1.9 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.7 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +1.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −1.0 |
| All shots | −1.6 | −6.1 | +4.4 | −3.3 | −1.5 | −0.6 | +4.8 | +2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Robin Haase | Mikhail Kukushkin | Net, Robin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.8 | +2.5 | −6.3 | |
| 2 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Robin Haase serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 33% | 10% 0% | 48% 80% |
| 2 | 44% 83% | 10% 75% | 46% 58% |
Within sets −0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mikhail Kukushkin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 100% | 26% 80% | 32% 67% |
| 2 | 42% 72% | 26% 55% | 33% 79% |
Within sets −1.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Robin Haase
9.5 points left on the table across 332 shots 2.85 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×13; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
Mikhail Kukushkin
7.3 points left on the table across 330 shots 2.21 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts