RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 17 charted matches · 2014–2022

Mikhail Kukushkin

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.7% ±3.0 raw 60.9% · tour 63.4% · 1,399 points
Return points won 36.4% ±3.1 raw 35.1% · tour 36.6% · 1,319 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.01 ±0.12 better than 54% of ATP · raw −0.01
Shot selection −0.15 ±0.17 better than 33% of ATP · raw −0.14
Execution −0.47 ±0.63 better than 46% of ATP · raw −0.32
Tactical adaptability +0.12 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 17 matches
Adaptation speed −0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.16 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 95% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 7,805 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Mikhail Kukushkin goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 437 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 42% 58.7%±5.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 44.0%±7.5 43.7%
BH down the line 20% 50.7%±8.0 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 38.7%±11.0 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 377 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 24% 55.7%±7.8 51.5%
FH crosscourt 20% 47.4%±8.4 52.7%
FH through the middle 15% 49.2%±9.3 47.0%
BH crosscourt 14% 55.3%±9.6 49.1%
BH through the middle 13% 43.4%±9.7 46.8%
BH down the line 11% 44.4%±10.6 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 318 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 45.4%±6.5 46.6%
FH down the line 26% 49.0%±8.1 44.7%
FH through the middle 21% 37.8%±8.5 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 4% 27.0%±12.7 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 3% 64.1%±14.2 69.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 297 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 53.2%±6.9 48.0%
BH through the middle 24% 50.3%±8.6 43.8%
BH down the line 23% 52.1%±8.8 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 49.8%±13.2 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 4% 38.8%±14.4 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +12 How much less varied Mikhail Kukushkin's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 147 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 58% ▲ 69% / 73%
Body 12% 18% 57% / 63%
T 41% 24% ▼ 71% / 75%

691 normal · 38 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 66% ▲ 67% / 73%
Body 16% 10% 57% / 63%
T 35% 24% ▼ 65% / 72%

559 normal · 109 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 62.7%±4.1 n=347 46% ▼
Body12% 52.4%±7.6 n=87 0% ▼
T40% 64.3%±4.4 n=295 54% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.023): serve T more. Gap 2.2 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 62.7%±4.1 n=347 65% ▲
Body15% 54.7%±7.2 n=98 2% ▼
T33% 58.3%±5.1 n=223 33%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.14).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.76 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.9±4.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (502 repeats, 861 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 51 27% −9.7±8.1
1stAd courtT 172 31% +3.4±5.4
1stAd courtWide 181 28% +0.3±5.1
1stDeuce courtBody 46 47% +10.7±9.4
1stDeuce courtT 203 20% −4.7±4.3
1stDeuce courtWide 182 31% +4.0±5.2
2ndAd courtBody 99 51% +1.6±7.2
2ndAd courtT 48 47% −2.1±9.3
2ndAd courtWide 76 49% +0.2±8.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 147 44% −5.1±6.1
2ndDeuce courtT 84 45% −5.0±7.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 30 49% +1.0±10.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Mikhail Kukushkin's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 2.2% · won 63% · −1.0±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 61% · −2.5±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 60% · −3.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 60% · −3.8±10.2 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 59% · −4.6±10.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 3.6% · won 50% · +11.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, deep used 3.9% · won 48% · +9.8±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 5.8% · won 47% · +8.0±9.7 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 3.6% · won 46% · +7.9±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 3.0% · won 44% · +5.7±11.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.8% · won 59% · +7.6±7.0 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 61% · +9.4±8.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 3.8% · won 58% · +6.2±8.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.4% · won 57% · +5.4±7.9 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 57% · +4.9±9.4 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Mikhail Kukushkin wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.7% · won 62% · +11.2±10.7 vs own baseline · +19.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Miomir Kecmanovic (4/8), Marc Polmans (6/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 59% · +7.9±8.9 vs own baseline · +13.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Laslo Djere (3/7), Botic Van De Zandschulp (7/14)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 59% · +8.0±9.3 vs own baseline · +14.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (3/6), Kei Nishikori (3/6)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 58% · +7.7±9.5 vs own baseline · +10.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Miomir Kecmanovic (3/7), Botic Van De Zandschulp (4/7)
  5. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 61% · +10.4±12.4 vs own baseline · +24.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 56% · +5.5±10.0 vs own baseline · +12.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · serve +1+2.1125
Body 2nd serve · deuce court+1.9121
Wide 2nd serve · ad court+0.9135
FH to the middle · return+0.8205
BH to the middle · return+0.5247

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−2.3371
FH to the middle · return−2.1217
FH to the middle · rally−1.9274
FH to their forehand · serve +1−1.5186
Body 2nd serve · deuce court−1.3147

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line40%
Deep returns35%
Avg rally length4.7
Wide serves · deuce48%
BH down the line23%
1st serve in63%
Drop shots / shot1.8%
Wide serves · ad52%
Forehand share53%
Run-around forehands18%
Through the middle23%
Chipped returns12%
Points at net9%
Serve & volley1%
Backhand slice15%
Point-ending shots20.4%
T serves · deuce40%
Unforced errors / shot8.5%
T serves · ad33%

Plays most like

  1. Alex Michelsen 2023–2026 plan v
  2. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v
  3. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
  4. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  5. Pablo Andujar 2013–2023 plan v
  6. Kei Nishikori 2011–2025 plan v
  7. Jaume Munar 2018–2026 plan v
  8. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Magnus Norman 2000–2001
  2. Arnaud Clement 1999–2006
  3. Andre Agassi 1988–2006

Charted matches