Bangkok CH · R32 · Hard · 12 Feb 2019
Zhe Li v Thiemo De Bakker
87–94 in points · Thiemo De Bakker won
Why it went the way it did
Thiemo De Bakker won 4.5 more points than Zhe Li relative to what the serve alone predicted. Zhe Li's biggest leaks: return execution −2.1, serve 1st execution −1.9, serve 2nd execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Zhe Li | Thiemo De Bakker | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.9 | −3.4 | −0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.8 | −2.1 | −1.1 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.5 | +0.3 | +1.4 | −0.5 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +0.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −0.5 | +0.7 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −2.5 | +0.2 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +0.5 | −0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −1.8 | +0.8 | −6.5 | −7.5 | −2.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Zhe Li | Thiemo De Bakker | Net, Zhe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.8 | −0.4 | −3.4 | |
| 2 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | |
| 3 | −4.9 | −2.6 | −2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Zhe Li serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 73% | 29% 50% | 32% 56% |
| 2 | 24% 63% | 32% 82% | 44% 47% |
| 3 | 25% 63% | 44% 71% | 31% 50% |
Set to set +0.11 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Thiemo De Bakker serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 67% | 17% 80% | 52% 73% |
| 2 | 25% 57% | 14% 50% | 61% 59% |
| 3 | 40% 58% | 20% 67% | 40% 83% |
Set to set −0.16 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Zhe Li
5.7 points left on the table across 241 shots 2.36 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.78 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Thiemo De Bakker
7.9 points left on the table across 255 shots 3.09 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts