New York · QF · Hard · 15 Feb 2019
Reilly Opelka v Guillermo Garcia Lopez
62–51 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Reilly Opelka won 6.2 more points than Guillermo Garcia Lopez relative to what the serve alone predicted. Guillermo Garcia Lopez's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, return execution −2.1, return shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Reilly Opelka | Guillermo Garcia Lopez | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.2 | +3.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −1.9 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −2.1 | −3.7 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.2 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +1.7 | +1.9 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.7 | −1.7 | +0.2 | −2.3 | +2.5 | +0.3 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +3.2 | +3.8 | +0.3 | −2.9 | +0.2 | −2.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Reilly Opelka | Guillermo Garcia Lopez | Net, Reilly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.5 | −4.5 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +3.3 | +2.1 | +1.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Reilly Opelka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 92% | – | 46% 73% |
| 2 | 43% 62% | 7% 100% | 50% 80% |
Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Guillermo Garcia Lopez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 75% | 4% 100% | 63% 53% |
| 2 | 37% 62% | 6% 100% | 57% 70% |
Within sets +0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Reilly Opelka
4.0 points left on the table across 184 shots 2.19 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Guillermo Garcia Lopez
4.1 points left on the table across 158 shots 2.60 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts