RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 2015–2019

Guillermo Garcia Lopez

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.3% ±3.2 raw 64.3% · tour 63.4% · 796 points
Return points won 37.4% ±3.3 raw 36.6% · tour 36.6% · 842 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.10 ±0.14 better than 30% of ATP · raw −0.09
Shot selection −0.35 ±0.19 better than 19% of ATP · raw −0.33
Execution +0.73 ±0.86 better than 89% of ATP · raw +0.96
Tactical adaptability +0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed −0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.65 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 46% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,766 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Guillermo Garcia Lopez goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 313 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 29% 54.1%±7.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 46.8%±8.9 43.7%
BH down the line 13% 39.2%±10.2 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 46.2%±11.3 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 8% 32.7%±11.4 35.1%
BH slice down the line 8% 35.0%±11.8 37.1%
FH inside-out 6% 50.9%±13.0 51.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 189 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 26% 41.5%±9.8 48.0%
BH through the middle 21% 52.1%±10.7 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 19% 44.4%±11.0 42.1%
BH down the line 13% 48.4%±12.4 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 10% 31.6%±12.4 35.1%
BH slice down the line 6% 45.7%±14.7 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 169 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 52% 58.6%±7.8 46.6%
FH down the line 26% 48.4%±10.3 44.7%
FH through the middle 18% 49.6%±11.5 41.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 151 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 30% 50.1%±10.2 52.7%
FH down the line 28% 50.5%±10.4 51.5%
BH through the middle 14% 39.9%±12.6 46.8%
FH through the middle 11% 44.3%±13.4 47.0%
BH crosscourt 9% 54.0%±14.3 49.1%
BH down the line 9% 56.5%±14.2 48.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +18 How much less varied Guillermo Garcia Lopez's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 51 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 36% 73% / 73%
Body 16% 0% ▼ 69% / 63%
T 49% 64% ▲ 80% / 75%

388 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 50% 75% / 73%
Body 21% 8% ▼ 62% / 63%
T 32% 43% ▲ 78% / 72%

325 normal · 40 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide35% 62.9%±6.1 n=139 48% ▲
Body16% 63.3%±8.3 n=62 2% ▼
T50% 64.4%±5.2 n=198 50%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.93).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 66.3%±5.4 n=174 48%
Body19% 60.8%±8.0 n=70 6% ▼
T33% 66.7%±6.3 n=121 46% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.43).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.66 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.1±5.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (293 repeats, 451 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 30 30% −6.8±9.7
1stAd courtT 85 26% −1.6±6.8
1stAd courtWide 113 21% −6.1±5.6
1stDeuce courtBody 40 39% +1.9±9.6
1stDeuce courtT 134 27% +1.5±5.7
1stDeuce courtWide 94 28% +1.2±6.7
2ndAd courtBody 38 56% +6.2±9.9
2ndAd courtT 25 54% +4.9±11.1
2ndAd courtWide 86 44% −4.0±7.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 60 55% +6.2±8.6
2ndDeuce courtT 59 54% +4.1±8.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 30 47% −0.7±10.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Guillermo Garcia Lopez's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.3% · won 73% · −0.2±9.8 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.3% · won 73% · −0.8±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.7% · won 59% · −14.8±10.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.7% · won 63% · +8.9±9.9 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 61% · +7.5±10.5 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.9% · won 60% · +6.4±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 59% · +5.3±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 55% · +1.4±11.5 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Guillermo Garcia Lopez wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 63% · +10.2±11.5 vs own baseline · +25.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Fernando Verdasco (4/6), Jiri Vesely (10/14)
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 63% · +10.2±12.6 vs own baseline · +35.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 60% · +7.7±12.8 vs own baseline · +24.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jiri Vesely (5/7)
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 57% · +3.9±11.8 vs own baseline · +11.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Aljaz Bedene (4/8), Lukas Rosol (5/6)
  5. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 55% · +2.7±13.0 vs own baseline · +6.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Aljaz Bedene (3/6)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 55% · +1.8±11.8 vs own baseline · +8.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · rally+2.6297
BH to their backhand · rally+2.4193
FH to their forehand · rally+1.8203
BH to the middle · rally+1.2150
FH to their backhand · serve +1+1.1161

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · deuce court−2.6200
T 1st serve · ad court−1.2141
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.8137
FH to their forehand · rally−0.7191
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.7171

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Hamad Medjedovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Chipped returns26%
T serves · deuce50%
Avg rally length4.4
BH down the line23%
Run-around forehands24%
Backhand slice28%
FH down the line32%
Deep returns30%
Drop shots / shot1.7%
Forehand share54%
Through the middle25%
Wide serves · ad48%
Serve & volley0%
T serves · ad33%
Points at net6%
Point-ending shots17.6%
1st serve in56%
Wide serves · deuce35%
Unforced errors / shot6.1%

Plays most like

  1. Marton Fucsovics 2018–2026 plan v
  2. Lorenzo Musetti 2019–2026 plan v
  3. Juan Martin Del Potro 2007–2022 plan v
  4. Philipp Kohlschreiber 2008–2019 plan v
  5. Learner Tien 2022–2026 plan v
  6. David Goffin 2013–2025 plan v
  7. Jack Draper 2022–2026 plan v
  8. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Alex Corretja 1995–2002
  2. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005
  3. Carlos Moya 1997–2007

Charted matches