Sao Paulo · SF · Clay · 2 Mar 2019
Casper Ruud v Cristian Garin
53–61 in points · Cristian Garin won
Why it went the way it did
Cristian Garin won 3.6 more points than Casper Ruud relative to what the serve alone predicted. Casper Ruud's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.6, slice shot selection −1.8, return shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Casper Ruud | Cristian Garin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | −1.7 | +0.5 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −2.1 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.6 | −3.6 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | +2.3 | +0.5 | +2.9 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +2.3 | +3.1 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −1.9 | −2.6 | −3.6 | +1.1 | +1.9 | −2.9 | ±0.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Casper Ruud | Cristian Garin | Net, Casper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.8 | −4.0 | −1.8 | |
| 2 | +2.2 | +4.0 | −1.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Casper Ruud serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 71% | 7% 0% | 43% 67% |
| 2 | 55% 56% | 7% 50% | 38% 64% |
Set to set +3.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Cristian Garin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% 64% | – | 27% 88% |
| 2 | 58% 47% | – | 42% 91% |
Set to set +1.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Casper Ruud
4.7 points left on the table across 194 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Cristian Garin
3.4 points left on the table across 199 shots 1.70 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts