RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 171 charted matches · 2017–2026

Casper Ruud

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 67.8% ±2.4 raw 66.3% · tour 63.4% · 13,029 points
Return points won 38.5% ±2.6 raw 36.7% · tour 36.6% · 13,040 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.03 ±0.05 better than 49% of ATP · raw −0.02
Shot selection −0.02 ±0.09 better than 51% of ATP · raw −0.01
Execution +0.87 ±0.19 better than 93% of ATP · raw +0.96
Tactical adaptability +0.18 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 168 matches
Adaptation speed +0.03 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.30 ±0.37 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 7,940 shots · better than 36% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.68 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 40% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 64,763 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Casper Ruud goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 5,199 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 48.1%±1.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 18% 43.0%±2.6 43.7%
FH inside-out 11% 57.1%±3.3 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 41.6%±3.8 42.5%
BH down the line 7% 50.5%±4.2 46.4%
FH inside-in 6% 58.2%±4.4 54.7%
BH slice through the middle 6% 37.1%±4.5 35.1%
FH through the middle 4% 48.6%±5.6 45.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 3,149 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 58.6%±2.8 52.7%
FH down the line 24% 52.8%±3.0 51.5%
FH through the middle 21% 47.7%±3.2 47.0%
BH through the middle 10% 46.6%±4.4 46.8%
BH crosscourt 9% 45.2%±4.8 49.1%
BH slice through the middle 2% 39.5%±8.7 44.8%
BH down the line 2% 47.4%±9.7 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 1% 71.8%±9.0 70.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 3,099 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 35% 45.8%±2.5 48.0%
BH through the middle 18% 42.2%±3.4 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 36.2%±3.8 42.1%
BH down the line 9% 43.5%±4.6 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 8% 34.4%±4.9 35.1%
FH inside-out 7% 58.7%±5.4 52.6%
FH inside-in 4% 55.3%±6.7 54.3%
FH through the middle 3% 38.0%±8.1 46.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 2,336 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 40% 46.6%±2.7 46.6%
FH through the middle 23% 40.3%±3.4 41.5%
FH down the line 19% 48.5%±3.8 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 9% 24.0%±4.7 24.5%
FH slice down the line 4% 28.9%±7.1 25.6%
FH slice crosscourt 3% 31.7%±8.0 30.9%
FH down the line + approach 1% 72.2%±11.7 69.3%
FH drop shot down the line 1% 51.3%±14.3 49.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Casper Ruud's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 963 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 57% ▲ 75% / 73%
Body 10% 6% 64% / 63%
T 43% 38% 78% / 75%

6,592 normal · 234 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 53% 71% / 73%
Body 7% 6% 60% / 63%
T 41% 41% 72% / 72%

5,454 normal · 729 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 68.2%±1.3 n=3,279 44% ▼
Body9% 60.3%±3.1 n=640 0% ▼
T43% 68.8%±1.4 n=2,907 56% ▲

Off equilibrium (p < 0.001): serve T more. Gap 1.1 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 63.8%±1.4 n=3,214 46% ▼
Body7% 58.7%±3.8 n=421 0% ▼
T41% 66.7%±1.5 n=2,548 54% ▲

Off equilibrium (p < 0.001): serve T more. Gap 2.0 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.76 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.1±1.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (5,107 repeats, 7,562 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 367 38% +0.8±4.0
1stAd courtT 1,431 27% −0.7±1.9
1stAd courtWide 2,155 29% +2.1±1.6
1stDeuce courtBody 428 37% +0.6±3.7
1stDeuce courtT 1,958 26% +1.4±1.6
1stDeuce courtWide 1,918 27% −0.1±1.7
2ndAd courtBody 526 53% +4.0±3.5
2ndAd courtT 265 44% −4.9±4.8
2ndAd courtWide 1,455 50% +1.2±2.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 797 50% +0.8±2.9
2ndDeuce courtT 1,095 53% +3.1±2.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 624 50% +2.3±3.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Casper Ruud's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 66% · −2.6±4.5 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 65% · −4.0±4.1 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 63% · −5.9±3.9 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 61% · −7.0±4.0 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.8% · won 61% · −7.5±4.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.2% · won 53% · +13.8±5.0 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.0% · won 49% · +8.9±3.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.4% · won 45% · +5.5±4.8 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 3.3% · won 44% · +4.3±4.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.1% · won 43% · +2.9±5.1 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 56% · +9.6±3.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 59% · +12.9±5.4 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 52% · +5.3±3.8 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 52% · +5.7±4.2 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 53% · +6.6±4.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Casper Ruud wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 65% · +15.5±6.3 vs own baseline · +13.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (5/9), Egor Gerasimov (4/6)
  2. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.2% · won 68% · +18.6±7.9 vs own baseline · +17.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 60% · +10.1±5.4 vs own baseline · +6.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2/8), Stefanos Tsitsipas (5/11)
  4. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → FH inside-out used 0.3% · won 63% · +13.5±7.7 vs own baseline · +12.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 57% · +7.3±4.7 vs own baseline · +10.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Holger Rune (1/6), Novak Djokovic (4/12)
  6. Wide serve → BH through the middle return → FH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 64% · +15.0±8.3 vs own baseline · +9.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH volley to their forehand · rally+5.5161
FH volley to their backhand · rally+3.8216
BH to their forehand · rally+3.01,230
FH to their backhand · return +1+2.9791
FH to their forehand · serve +1+2.62,019

Most exposed to

T 2nd serve · ad court−3.2260
FH volley to their forehand · serve +1−2.6144
BH to their forehand · return−1.6742
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1−1.5124
FH to the middle · return−1.42,031

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.56, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.35, Jack Draper +1.30, Nishesh Basavareddy +1.13, Daniil Medvedev +1.02

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +2.55, Fabian Marozsan +2.50, Pedro Martinez +2.39, Roberto Carballes Baena +2.38, Roberto Bautista Agut +2.36

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Roberto Bautista Agut, Taylor Fritz, Andrey Rublev, Sebastian Korda

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands36%
1st serve in65%
Forehand share57%
Wide serves · deuce48%
Avg rally length4.2
Through the middle26%
T serves · ad41%
Deep returns29%
Wide serves · ad52%
Chipped returns17%
Backhand slice23%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
T serves · deuce43%
Serve & volley1%
Point-ending shots21.2%
Points at net8%
FH down the line28%
Unforced errors / shot8.3%
BH down the line15%

Plays most like

  1. Stefanos Tsitsipas 2016–2026 plan v
  2. Marcos Giron 2018–2026 plan v
  3. Tommy Robredo 2003–2022 plan v
  4. Radu Albot 2016–2024 plan v
  5. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v
  6. Roberto Bautista Agut 2013–2026 plan v
  7. Dusan Lajovic 2014–2025 plan v
  8. Felix Auger Aliassime 2017–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Jim Courier 1989–1999
  2. Andy Roddick 2001–2012
  3. Magnus Norman 2000–2001

Charted matches