Shenzhen CH · R64 · Hard · 11 Mar 2019
Marc Polmans v Karim Mohamed Maamoun
100–86 in points · Marc Polmans won
Why it went the way it did
Marc Polmans won 6.6 more points than Karim Mohamed Maamoun relative to what the serve alone predicted. Karim Mohamed Maamoun's biggest leaks: return execution −4.6, forehand execution −3.9, slice shot selection −3.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marc Polmans | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.6 | +4.8 | +5.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −4.6 | −4.6 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.4 | −3.0 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −3.9 | −3.2 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.2 | +2.2 | +2.6 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +5.2 | +4.7 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −4.0 | ±0.0 | −3.7 | +0.5 | −3.1 | +0.9 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.5 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −1.1 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +1.0 | −1.3 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +0.8 | −3.2 | −3.2 | −5.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Marc Polmans | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | Net, Marc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.0 | −5.1 | +6.1 | |
| 2 | −3.7 | +0.4 | −4.1 | |
| 3 | +3.7 | −0.9 | +4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marc Polmans serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 72% | 3% 0% | 41% 69% |
| 2 | 50% 56% | 9% 0% | 41% 69% |
| 3 | 46% 69% | 4% 0% | 50% 71% |
Set to set +0.66 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.72 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karim Mohamed Maamoun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 50% | 5% 50% | 55% 55% |
| 2 | 50% 75% | – | 50% 67% |
| 3 | 48% 57% | – | 52% 47% |
Set to set +0.04 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marc Polmans
7.3 points left on the table across 376 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×3; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Karim Mohamed Maamoun
7.9 points left on the table across 385 shots 2.04 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts