RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2019–2024

Marc Polmans

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.2% ±4.0 raw 58.9% · tour 63.4% · 559 points
Return points won 38.4% ±4.0 raw 40.2% · tour 36.6% · 527 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.06 ±0.12 better than 41% of ATP · raw −0.05
Shot selection −0.65 ±0.46 better than 7% of ATP · raw −0.62
Execution +0.69 ±0.94 better than 88% of ATP · raw +1.22
Points left on the table 2.26 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 87% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,301 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Marc Polmans goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 236 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 37.0%±7.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 24% 45.1%±9.3 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 18% 37.9%±10.1 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 7% 35.2%±12.9 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 233 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 25% 50.1%±9.3 52.7%
FH down the line 21% 57.0%±9.8 51.5%
BH through the middle 17% 48.9%±10.6 46.8%
FH through the middle 13% 56.8%±11.5 47.0%
BH crosscourt 12% 45.5%±11.8 49.1%
BH down the line 4% 48.8%±15.0 48.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 175 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 42.7%±8.3 48.0%
BH through the middle 22% 39.3%±10.5 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 40.5%±12.3 42.1%
BH down the line 10% 52.1%±13.5 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 8% 29.5%±12.9 35.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 146 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 28% 56.6%±10.4 52.7%
FH down the line 21% 51.8%±11.5 52.0%
FH through the middle 16% 49.9%±12.5 47.4%
BH through the middle 12% 50.9%±13.3 46.8%
BH crosscourt 12% 44.5%±13.3 49.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −7 How much less varied Marc Polmans's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 55 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 45% 71% / 73%
Body 14% 27% ▲ 53% / 63%
T 41% 27% ▼ 76% / 75%

279 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 57% 55% 66% / 73%
Body 12% 20% ▲ 60% / 63%
T 31% 25% 63% / 72%

224 normal · 44 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 60.3%±6.3 n=131 46%
Body14% 49.2%±9.7 n=42 1% ▼
T40% 61.5%±6.6 n=117 53% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.05).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide57% 60.4%±6.0 n=152 63% ▲
Body13% 59.5%±9.9 n=36 0% ▼
T30% 57.4%±7.8 n=80 37% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.84).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.64 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +13.1±9.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (194 repeats, 354 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 21 43% +6.3±11.4
1stAd courtT 48 35% +7.1±8.9
1stAd courtWide 78 30% +2.6±7.2
1stDeuce courtBody 27 39% +1.9±10.6
1stDeuce courtT 73 27% +1.7±7.2
1stDeuce courtWide 76 30% +3.2±7.3
2ndAd courtBody 59 50% +1.0±8.7
2ndAd courtT 12 42% −6.9±12.5
2ndAd courtWide 34 57% +8.7±10.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 43 45% −4.2±9.6
2ndDeuce courtT 34 53% +3.3±10.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 22 49% +0.8±11.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Marc Polmans's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 13.0% · won 48% · −0.2±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 13.6% · won 47% · −1.1±11.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 3.8% · won 59% · +11.1±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 53% · +5.0±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 50% · +2.9±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 3.5% · won 50% · +2.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.3% · won 49% · +1.4±9.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Marc Polmans wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.1% · won 55% · +9.7±12.1 vs own baseline · +22.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Giustino (9/13)
  2. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 54% · +9.1±12.8 vs own baseline · +22.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Giustino (8/10)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 48% · +2.9±10.2 vs own baseline · −3.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Karim Mohamed Maamoun (4/10), Janko Tipsarevic (3/6)
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 49% · +3.2±12.1 vs own baseline · +3.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Giustino (5/11)
  5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 47% · +1.8±12.9 vs own baseline · −2.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Giustino (4/10)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 1.2% · won 47% · +1.2±11.8 vs own baseline · +0.5 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · rally+2.1163
BH to the middle · return+1.3126
FH to their forehand · rally+0.7239
BH to their backhand · rally+0.1236
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.3152

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · rally−2.1196
FH to their backhand · rally−2.0200
BH to the middle · return−1.9133
BH to their backhand · rally−1.9286
FH to the middle · rally−0.4170

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Raphael Collignon, Jack Draper, Pedro Martinez, Thiago Monteiro

Charted matches