Taipei CH · F · Hard · 14 Apr 2019
Sergiy Stakhovsky v Dennis Novak
45–59 in points · Dennis Novak won
Why it went the way it did
Dennis Novak won 6.4 more points than Sergiy Stakhovsky relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sergiy Stakhovsky's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.3, slice shot selection −1.9, slice execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sergiy Stakhovsky | Dennis Novak | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +1.4 | −0.6 | +0.8 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.5 | −1.2 | −1.8 | −0.2 | +0.5 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +0.3 | −2.3 | −2.4 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +2.0 | +2.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.9 | −1.3 | −3.0 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.5 | −3.0 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −0.4 | −7.5 | −8.1 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Sergiy Stakhovsky | Dennis Novak | Net, Sergiy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.3 | +0.7 | −5.0 | |
| 2 | −3.7 | −2.3 | −1.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sergiy Stakhovsky serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 42% | 5% 0% | 41% 67% |
| 2 | 59% 69% | 11% 33% | 30% 75% |
Within sets −0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dennis Novak serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 67% | – | 57% 75% |
| 2 | 44% 64% | – | 56% 72% |
Within sets −0.65 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sergiy Stakhovsky
4.0 points left on the table across 126 shots 3.18 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Dennis Novak
3.7 points left on the table across 125 shots 2.98 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH slice down the line ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts