RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2016–2023

Dennis Novak

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 60.1% ±3.9 raw 57.9% · tour 63.4% · 394 points
Return points won 36.8% ±3.9 raw 32.6% · tour 36.6% · 362 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Dennis Novak goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 81 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 31.9%±10.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 42.6%±13.4 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 19% 44.3%±13.8 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 60 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 27% 42.7%±13.6 46.8%
FH through the middle 22% 40.6%±14.1 47.0%
FH down the line 20% 47.8%±14.5 51.5%
FH crosscourt 17% 55.1%±14.9 52.7%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 54% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 12% 8% 60% / 63%
T 46% 38% 72% / 75%

191 normal · 13 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 62% ▲ 68% / 73%
Body 13% 8% 58% / 63%
T 45% 31% ▼ 68% / 72%

163 normal · 26 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 59.9%±7.5 n=87 41% ▼
Body12% 59.3%±11.0 n=24 0% ▼
T46% 64.6%±7.1 n=93 59% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.56).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide45% 49.3%±7.7 n=85
Body12% 53.6%±11.3 n=23
T43% 57.7%±7.7 n=81

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.32).

Exploitability 0.67 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.6±11.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (160 repeats, 223 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 16 31% −6.3±11.2
1stAd courtT 49 27% −0.9±8.2
1stAd courtWide 47 24% −3.6±8.0
1stDeuce courtBody 28 40% +3.0±10.6
1stDeuce courtT 37 16% −9.4±7.3
1stDeuce courtWide 61 22% −5.0±7.2
2ndAd courtBody 29 56% +6.2±10.6
2ndAd courtT 13 53% +3.7±12.5
2ndAd courtWide 20 51% +2.7±11.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 26 48% −1.3±11.0
2ndDeuce courtT 13 46% −3.4±12.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 23 48% −0.1±11.3

Charted matches