Barcelona · R64 · Clay · 22 Apr 2019
Fernando Verdasco v Feliciano Lopez
63–51 in points · Fernando Verdasco won
Why it went the way it did
Fernando Verdasco won 4.3 more points than Feliciano Lopez relative to what the serve alone predicted. Feliciano Lopez's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.8, return execution −4.4, forehand execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Fernando Verdasco | Feliciano Lopez | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −1.9 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | −0.1 | +1.1 | −3.2 | −2.2 | −0.1 | +0.6 | −4.4 | −3.9 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.9 | −4.2 | −2.6 | −0.3 | +2.3 | −2.4 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.5 | +1.8 | +2.6 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −2.0 | +0.1 | −4.8 | +1.2 | −3.5 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.7 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +1.4 | −5.9 | −4.9 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −8.5 | −9.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Fernando Verdasco | Feliciano Lopez | Net, Fernando | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.5 | −6.3 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | −1.4 | −3.0 | +1.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Fernando Verdasco serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 75% | 15% 75% | 23% 83% |
| 2 | 58% 67% | 22% 63% | 19% 14% |
Within sets +0.77 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Feliciano Lopez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 75% | 9% 0% | 39% 67% |
| 2 | 52% 54% | 8% 0% | 40% 50% |
Within sets +0.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Fernando Verdasco
5.8 points left on the table across 217 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×2; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Feliciano Lopez
7.2 points left on the table across 229 shots 3.16 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.89 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts